This stuff clarifies I lowkey would have prodded Alvarez and a few lower guys and seen if they would bite.
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-trade-value-31-to-40/ Fangraphs has updated the next part in their trade value list. Altuve clocked in at #36. Most of the guys had a lot of years left after this year with only one having two years left after this (Simmons). Guessing Bregman will end up around 10th. Still Possible Realmuto makes the list if MLB teams completely believe the bat doesn't regress as much as projections. I was a little surprised Simmons was rated as highly as he was.
O‘ have a deal in place for Machado and are “working out the details” USA Today thinks it’s the Dodgers, Tim Kurjkean (sp? ) thinks it’s the Phillies
Amazing to me the Dodgers are in on this. Purely a rental for them and he has posted terrible defensive numbers at SS. Makes more sense to me for a team hoping to re-sign and for 3B (though wanting to keep him may mean keeping him at SS).
It seems like the dodgers are always in on every trade or free agent. They love spending that damn money.
Where do you think Correa will end up? In other words, think Bregman will be ahead of Correa? Given Bregs has an extra year of control, I think that’s more than likely the case. It’s crazy to think that he may end up being better/more valuable than Correa regardless though. His approach at the plate is miles ahead of Correa at this point IMO.
Bregman's approach and short swing make him a guy who will be good for a long time. I wish Springer would shorten that swing as he would certainly become a better hitter. Houston seems to be nailing it with the smaller guys.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/07/top-50-mlb-trade-candidates-2.html MLBTR list of trade candidates. Of interest to Astros fans: 2. Familia 3. Britton 4. Ramos 12. Soria 13-15. Hand, Iglesias, Vasquez 16. Realmuto 17. DeGrom 24. Barraclough 39. Choo 40-41. Bautista, Granderson 53-55. Smoak, Castellanos, Dickerson 56. Dietrich 63. Mesoraco 73. Conley 74. Merrifield DL. Cespedes, Cabrera, Ramos HM. Minor, Steckenrider, Abreu, Marte, Polanco, Myers I do feel confident they will make a move of some kind. A lot depends on what they expect from McCann and Correa coming back from injuries and the price of the elite relievers. I think the glut of 2nd and 3rd tier prospects Houston still has in the upper levels of their system makes it more likely they pull the trigger on adding 2nd tier or rental players. I don’t think they’ll be in on Hand. Realmuto is the only potential blockbuster.
They are going for the adrenaline shot in the arm to try to get back to a world series, the only satisfying outcome for their city and fans. Is this the right guy or circumstances to allow that to occur? Perhaps not. After a terrible start, they are mostly on track now. But their division lead is tenuous. Thanks to no one else running away with things, they are still in the hunt for best record in the NL. Bringing in a name player is great PR. If he helps, he is the hero, If not, and they fail, he is why. Win win for the FO sounds to me.
I'd put Bregman higher than Correa due to control, but these guys are really close together. Granted, my judgement on what MLB thinks has been off since the offseason. Supposedly, there are 4 catchers that made the Fangraphs list. Not sure how Realmuto wouldn't be in the Top 4 though he likely is projected for less WAR under contract/control years than anyone on the Fangraphs list so far.
I think they put a premium on scarcity. There are only 6 catchers in the league with >1.5fwar. 1 is Realmuto, 2 are hurt (Cervelli and Ramos), the other 3 play for contenders (Posey, Contreras, Grandal). Realmuto is 1st in fWAR at his position by a wide margin. So even though there are probably tons of SP, SS, and OF who have more projected remaining WAR or surplus value, the scarcity of quality players at his position makes him more valuable. My guess is Sanchez, Realmuto, Contreras, and Posey are the 4 guys on the list, although I suppose Gomes, Alfaro, and Mejia have a chance.
If you think “Tucker is a far superior talent than than Realmuto and will be out producing him soon”.... you are going to be very disappointed.
fWAR already gives a value to catchers for scarcity plus the other three catchers will likely provide more fWAR under control (Sanchez and Contreras have more years even if less WAR per year) with only Posey being expensive. It is baked into the formula. If Realmuto is more valuable than fWAR suggests because of scarcity, fWAR is incorrectly calculating replacement level for catchers. fWAR is not the most accurate for catchers based on framing, but I don't think framing numbers will drastically change his value as he is not elite at it. If Realmuto is within Top 30, teams got to believe the bat this first half of season is legit (i.e., eyeball test can spot changes that stats are slow to adjust) such that he's expected to continue to significantly separate himself and provide a lot more WAR through his bat than publicly available projections suggest. If Realmuto is truly valued in Top 30 by MLB teams in general, I hope like hell Astros aren't the high bidder on him. Edit: Caveat - teams didn't operate such that projected WAR had a linear relationship with money last offseason. This is different from last few years. I expect it will bounce back once more teams are willing to spend, but it is possible Realmuto's short term value has skyrocketed while money is tight.
My understanding is that fWAR’s defensive value metric doesn’t calculate value based on scarcity, it is based on positional value. SS, CF, and C are deemed more difficult and more valuable, and that is baked into the formula. The quantity of good players at each position is not a part of the formula. This is evidenced by the fact (as I highlighted) that there are only 6 catchers with 1.5 fWAR, while there are 20 SS and 10 1B who have reached that threshold.
If a position is harder to play, it is harder to find someone that can play the position causing the positional adjustment being based on scarcity. WAR is finite. I see no reason to double count scarcity based on number of good players at a position as no team ever has had 4 WAR players at every position. No reason to pay more for elite WAR at catcher if you can't fill out positions down the defensive spectrum with elite players. Edit: I understand most teams haven't operated purely like this in past, but up until last offseason, teams were operating more like this as time went on.
