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Baseball is a game of luck

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Rockets4lf, Oct 19, 2017.

  1. Rockets4lf

    Rockets4lf Member

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    Hopefully we get lucky tomorrow or it's bye bye season.
     
  2. bobrek

    bobrek Politics belong in the D & D

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    Baseball is no more lucky than any other sport. There was no luck involved in what Verlander has done to the Yankees. No luck involved in the McCann double or big Altuve hits.
     
  3. Major

    Major Member

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    Disagree - baseball has an element of luck that other sports don't have because the hitter doesn't have directional control of a baseball. You can aim for right field, for example, but you can't aim for x feet away from the fielder. You can hit a perfect line drive - if it's at a fielder, it's an out. If it's in a gap, it's a double or triple. Or you could hit a slow roller by accident and if it happens to be in the right spot, you get a hit. There's not much a player can really do to control which of those outcomes occur. In basketball and football, there are still lucky plays, but the players on both teams have a lot more control over the outcome because they are more "controlled" sports.

    You also see the luck element in results. If the Warriors play the Mavericks in a bunch of 5 game series, the Warriors are going to win every single time (barring injuries, etc). If the Astros and A's play a bunch of 5 game series, the Astros would win the majority, but the A's would win some as well. The end results of baseball games and series do have more randomness than basketball or football, at least. It's also why the best teams will have a lower winning % in baseball than those sports and why we can project Cleveland vs Golden State in the finals now with a decent amount of confidence, but can do no such thing in baseball. I can't say about hockey or soccer or other sports.
     
    Tfor3, tmactoyao, Ozzy and 3 others like this.
  4. tmacfor35

    tmacfor35 Contributing Member

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    If you want to play the luck route. The Yankees had been highly lucky through 5 games that hitters other than Altuve and Correa were hitting under 100 for the ALCS. Some rise to the mean had been overdue for the Astros and you got a bit of that yesterday. The Astros have hit good pitching bad pitching, average pitching, and good pitching all year. Time to deal the Yankees their final blow.
     
  5. panamamyers

    panamamyers Member
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    The Yankees have way more dribblers and broken bat bloopers for hits than the Astros this series.over 162 games that evens out. Over 7? Not so much.
    Baseball plays the shortest series relative to the regular season of any major sport.
    NFL has 16 games and playoff series are one game. So 1/16th of the season.
    NBA is 82 games with 7 game series so closer to 10% of what the season would be.
    This would mean that baseball would have to have about a best of 15 to make it more in line with 5he NBA.
    Not suggesting that they do that. Just saying that playoff baseball with all the extra days off is just more unlike the regular season than other sports are relative to their regular seasons.
     
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  6. Tfor3

    Tfor3 Member

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    You know why that's BS? What did luck do for the Rangers? Or any other team fishing right NOW.

    Luck is for losers.

    If you don't agree then score a dig against the rangers!
     
  7. Pen15clubber

    Pen15clubber Member

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    I'd like to see this amazing topic being broke up into 3-4 threads
     
  8. what

    what Member

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    Baseball is the most nonlucky major sport. The reason you can project clevland, gs, is that basketball is highly dependant on 1 supertar player.
    Baseball requires the entire team to win, all phases are equally important. When you built a championship baseball team you need a good bullpen as much as you need a power hitter. Baseball has more strategy than any of the major sports.

    In basketball, all you need is lebron, and the leagues blessing to get to the finals.
    Football is a qb league.
    Baseball is the superior sport in every way, but the problem is that only in the playoffs is a 4 hour game watchable.
    Basketball is the most enjoyable to watch, but it is also the jankiest in terms of officiating and superteams.
     
  9. tmacfor35

    tmacfor35 Contributing Member

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    There is more luck in baseball to some extent.

    Last night when McCann hit the ground rule double for instance. Had his ball bounced an inch lower it probably would have stayed in the park inhibiting our second run to score. Ultimately, Altuve drove two runs in, but the Yankees have been paired with lady luck for most of the series.
     
  10. panamamyers

    panamamyers Member
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    You just argued for the fact that baseball has more luck by saying we all know it will be Cleveland and Golden State.
    If a football teams wins 3 of every 4 games it's a good season. If a basketball team does, it's a good season. If a baseball team were to do that it would be considered the greatest team in the history of the game by far. Instead of the 116 the Mariners won, it would be 121 and 41.

    There is too much luck involved on a game by game basis in baseball to win that often. NFL has 5 or 6 teams each year that do it. The best teams impose their will on other teams in football.

    Heck, winning 2 out of every 3 games in baseball puts you as one of the top 20 teams in the last half century in MLB.

    There are just too many variables in a single game that are beyond your control.
     
  11. chenjy9

    chenjy9 Numbers Don't Lie
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    Baseball is luckier than other sports IMO due to the existence of pitchers. His fastball could be humming, but if all his breaking balls are hanging, he's eventually going to run into situations where he gives up runs after his opponents adapt to the pitch speed or if he tries throwing a breaking ball and it hangs, usually pretty good odds for a homer. If his control is off, then he might get a lot of walks. The only other team sports IMO that is somewhat comparable to baseball where a singular existence often determines the team's ability to win would be football with the QB and even in football, you can hand the ball off the run or your D gets TO's and score points.
     
  12. Air Langhi

    Air Langhi Contributing Member

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    I think football is the luckiest sport since its just a single game. Baseball is 2nd because 2 great pitchers can carry you even if the rest of the team is not good.
     
  13. sealclubber1016

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    Baseball involves substantially more luck than any other sport. There are simply too many elements completely out of your hands. Some luck is involved in football, but the vast majority is about your team making plays. Almost every bad play in football can be directly attributed to a guy simply not doing his job (or another guy doing his much better), not getting unlucky. In baseball you can hit the f**k out of the ball 3 times with nothing to show, and then have a roller that goes 50 feet be the biggest play of the game.

    Charlie Morton was dealing in game 3, with not one ball hit well, yet the results say he sucked.

    So much luck is involved that we have to use luck related stats to get a true gauge of how a guy is performing. You can perform significantly over your head, or under your potential for large stretches based on nothing more than bad luck. It's a marathon sport that needs huge sample sizes to get an actual gauge of who the best teams are, and it's reduced to a mere 7 games. A mediocre team could easily beat the best team in baseball in a 7 game series, a mediocre football team is not beating the super bowl champions in a playoff game.
     
  14. what

    what Member

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    Dude your only argument is that you cant control where the ball goes when it is hit. Lol.
    There is a reason teams shift, there is a reason ground ball pitchers create ground balls.
    Oh but, wait, they cant control where the ball goes when it is hit. Lol

    You cant be serious
     
  15. what

    what Member

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    I guess Tony Gwynn and Ted Williams were the luckiest hitters that ever lived.
    I guess Justin verlander needs to thank his lucky star that he wasnt as unlucky as Jose Lima
     
  16. bobrek

    bobrek Politics belong in the D & D

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    Uh oh....I tend to agree with what. :)
     
  17. intergalactic

    intergalactic Contributing Member

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    A baseball game has about 40 AB per team. Basketball has about 100 possessions per team. Assuming luck exists at all, games with fewer events are more heavily influenced by luck.

    You could also argue that luck doesn't exist. But even baseball diehards casually say things like "He was sitting on a pitch," which admits that hitters need luck.
     
  18. Buck Turgidson

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    It's gameday. This thread needs to die. Slow or fast, no le hace.
     
  19. dandorotik

    dandorotik Contributing Member

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    Maybe baseball isn't luckier, but it's definitely flukier.
     
  20. rocketsjudoka

    rocketsjudoka Contributing Member
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    I've been reading comments from Dodgers fans and a lot of them are saying that if Devinski hadn't hit the ump with the throw to second in the bottom of the 10th that they would've won it. In other words it's just bad luck. Although some have been hinting that maybe it was intentional.

    I don't know if it's just wishful thinking on their part but with two outs already and the next play being a fly out it doesn't look like that even if the ump hadn't been there they would've won it. Presuming Devinski had thrown it into second it's doubtful that Hernandez makes it to home on just that play. He probably would've been stranded on third.
    What do the baseball minds here think? Was that good luck on the Stros part or just griping on the part of Dodgers fans?
     

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