If you're in charge, do you let Gerrit Cole walk or pay him?

Verlander faints

 

Exception that makes the rule.

 

My guess is in the neighborhood of 6 years, $150-180 million. It go higher if the deep pocket teams, Dodgers and Yankees and Boston and Washington, get into a bidding war. The old Angels front office might have offered the 10 years, $250 million.

Luhnow has never signed a FA pitcher to that type of deal. I am guessing that he will not make an exception for Cole, but I am hoping otherwise.

We will see.

 

Scherzer is another. Nationals have already got about 40-50 million more value out of him than his contract is worth with 2 years to go. Kershaw has basically been as valuable as his contract. As long as Scherzer and Kershaw aren't negative players going forward, they have earned their contracts. When teams sign pitchers to 7-8 year deals, they are expecting to have gotten most of the value by year 5-6. The last couple of years are there as the player wants more money, and teams would rather pay that money to players instead of as luxury taxes.

 

3 years is a long time in MLB. At this time 3 years ago, we didn't have Verlander, Greinke, or Cole. Or Morton, for that matter.

 

The Astros will probably bid up to maybe Patrick Corbin money but at this point Cole is way beyond their budget. The trade for Greinke pretty much sums that up.

Now, if the question is SHOULD they keep him? Yeah, I'd love for Crane to put up the money to do so. It will be a bad contract by the end, but we are trying to win with this championship window. But Crane is as allergic to the luxury tax as anyone so it's not gonna happen.

 

i don’t think the Astros will be as nonchalant with Cole as they were with Keutchel. There is no reason not to offer a real competitive offer. Now, if a team goes and offers a lot of money beyond that, you can’t blame the Astros for holding and not getting into a bidding war....

 

Turned 29 in sept.
I see teams at 5-6 years, way to risky going longer. You want that 29,30,31,32 season...things start to change around 33-34.

Verlander is special and hasn’t lost his fastball and the Astros are rewarding him with shorter contracts.

 

40m/yr for 5 years would be $200M; nobody is giving him that much without spreading it out over 7-8 years.

 

Sale got 5/$145...

David Price was 4 years ago.

 

Agree.
That’s why I said I see the Astros offering 6 years 33 per, or 5 years 37 per for Cole.

 

Let's get to October.... as several posters have mentioned numerous times throughout the season, there is a lot riding on Houston winning it all this year.

 

I could see it work both ways.

If they win it all, Crane wants to keep the dynasty going and spends more (while the team likely has increased revenues)
If they come painfully close, and don't win it all, Crane wants to ensure they have the best possible chance to win and spends more.

OR

If they win it all, Crane knows they're going to be selling tickets/making a profit regardless... and doesn't feel compelled to spend that much more.
If they come painfully close, and don't win it all, they have slightly less revenues and Crane decides to not raise payroll that much more.

I think they make a push... we shall see how aggressive the negotiations get.

 

It'll be interesting to see how his market develops, especially in this baseball's smarter financial culture - but I'll be surprised if he settles for $25-26MM AAV.

I mean... the Yankees are going to be involved. The Angels are going to be involved. Those teams don't strike me as bargain hunters.

 

I wonder if they can try and backload a deal to where the first two years Cole is at a lower number. Once Greinke and JV leave/retire, then Cole's number could go to $30-35MM.

7 years, $210MM with an opt out after two.

Years 1-2: $25MM
Years 3-7: $32MM

 

The cba made it so backloading doesn’t avoid the luxury tax so I don’t think back loading will be used as much as it was. Houston’s issue will be staying under the luxury tax.

 

I think giving any pitcher more than $150M is foolish. And there is a good crop of SP this season. I think he will be lucky to get $200M/8yr.

 

Liking this idea more. Astros get 2B Vidal Brujan, SP Brent Honeywell, and CF Josh Lowe. Rays get Greinke and Correa. Houston extends Springer and signs Cole, Smoak, Maldonado, Avila, McHugh and trades prospects to KC for Duffy (KC eats money) and Barlow. Resulting roster:

CF Springer
SS Bregman
LF Brantley
2B Altuve
DH Alvarez
3B Gurriel
RF Tucker
1B Smoak
C Maldonado
Bench: Avila, Diaz, Marisnick, Toro
Rotation: Verlander, Cole, Duffy, McCullers, Peacock
Bullpen: Biagini, Devenski, Abreu, James, McHugh, Barlow, Pressly, Osuna

 

I wouldn't be surprised if he goes to the Dodgers. He's from LA and they have a bunch of money coming off the books next year

 

Astros re-sign Chirinos, Harris, Miley, sign Grandal, Wheeler.

Rotation
JV, Greinke, Wheeler, Miley Peacock
Lineup
Springer
Altuve
Yordan
Bregman
Brantley
Correa
Gurriel
Chirinos, Grandal
Tucker

Bench
Diaz, Marisnick, Straw, Toro enter a cage match in spring training.

Bullpen
Osuna, Pressly, James, Harris, Abreu, Urquidy plus
Biagini, Sanchez, Devo, Framber, Whitley enter cage match for last spots.