1. Welcome! Please take a few seconds to create your free account to post threads, make some friends, remove a few ads while surfing and much more. ClutchFans has been bringing fans together to talk Houston Sports since 1996. Join us!

Do you trust McHugh as a starter?

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Biggio Was His Name-O, Feb 27, 2019.

  1. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    May 3, 1999
    Messages:
    23,839
    Likes Received:
    13,895
    My point is that only 0 33% of pitching staffs have been better than the 2018 A
    Returning everyone would still likely yield a substantially worse performance. Outside of having best staff ever assembled, 2019 pitching staff likely will be substantially worse than last years.

    If Whitley pitches like an ace....
     
    eric.81 likes this.
  2. eric.81

    eric.81 Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Jan 3, 2002
    Messages:
    2,820
    Likes Received:
    1,488
    Again, they're all good replacements. Very good replacements even. Replacing excellent with good might be more problematic than we are expecting. I also agree with you that the ceiling on James and Whitley could exceed who they are replacing in the rotation.

    But a bird in the hand is better than two in the bush:
    1- I won't bet on McHugh exceeding LMJ's 2018 season, especially without being a starter for 2 seasons.

    2- I'm not sure how you can say that Miley/Whitley vs. Dallas is a push. We have no idea what Whitley can do at the major league level. Lucas Giolito was just the latest in a litany of "#1 prospect(s) in baseball" that looked terrible in his first extended run with the big club. And Miley pitched 80 innings of National League ball last year and was consistently terrible and/or injured for about 5 seasons prior.

    3- James/Valdez/Peacock to me = ?, ?, and half a ?. They're each eminently capable of being awesome but we don't have a ton of data yet that they're great starting pitchers.

    I do believe one of the young arms will blossom. I do believe in Colin McHugh and Brad Peacock as viable rotation pieces after being in the pen for a while. Would I place a bet on it? No way...
     
    CVcrew, The Beard and cmlmel77 like this.
  3. ktex

    ktex Member

    Joined:
    Jul 14, 2012
    Messages:
    853
    Likes Received:
    1,102
    I just feel we've weakened both the starting rotation and the bp by moving him. :(
     
  4. Buck Turgidson

    Joined:
    Feb 14, 2002
    Messages:
    84,993
    Likes Received:
    83,160
    Never said it was bad. I was responding to Peacock needing an inning to get warm, which wasn't the case in '17 but was at times out of the pen last year.
     
  5. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    May 3, 1999
    Messages:
    23,839
    Likes Received:
    13,895
    Last year, Peacock likely just had a little bad luck with the homers. Peacock was hilariously bad in the clutch last season, but overall had a good year. Biggest thing for him is getting his slider back. He can plow through decently without it, but his chance to be good, great is drastically better with it.
     
  6. Biggio Was His Name-O

    Joined:
    Apr 4, 2018
    Messages:
    517
    Likes Received:
    369
    Just in McHugh skipping start with sore back. So much for a workhorse...
     
  7. Buck Turgidson

    Joined:
    Feb 14, 2002
    Messages:
    84,993
    Likes Received:
    83,160
    Yep, I said it often last year, his slider needs to be the good Peacock slider. None of that frisbee bullshit.
     
    Joe Joe likes this.
  8. edwardc

    edwardc Member

    Joined:
    May 7, 2003
    Messages:
    9,465
    Likes Received:
    7,586
    After his outing today no not at all do i trust in him to be a starter.
     
    HTown2017Champs and Malaya like this.
  9. Nook

    Nook Member

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2008
    Messages:
    53,805
    Likes Received:
    111,557
    Yeah.... I don't think those homers were bad luck. He didn't have command of his slider..... it went from HOF caliber to Beer league. If he gets the command and feel back, we need to ride him like a crippled mule.
     
  10. Redfish81

    Redfish81 Member

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2016
    Messages:
    4,562
    Likes Received:
    6,319
    I don't expect McHugh to make a playoff start so I'm not concerned.

    Verlander
    Cole
    Whitley/James/ trade
    Miley
     
  11. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
    Supporting Member

    Joined:
    May 3, 1999
    Messages:
    23,839
    Likes Received:
    13,895
    Regardless of Peacock having issues with his slider, batters weren't hitting him harder in 2018 than 2017. Peacock's homer to fly ball rate was incredibly high. Of the 13 balls hit over the outfielders, 11 of them were homers. Peacock's average homer distance was very low. Batters are much more responsible for homers that went just enough versus warning track power.
     
  12. Nook

    Nook Member

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2008
    Messages:
    53,805
    Likes Received:
    111,557
    I understand and he may make adjustments, but I don't believe his home run rate increase is all a matter of luck. I watched 150+ games last year and he didn't have command of the slider like he did in the past.
     
  13. Buck Turgidson

    Joined:
    Feb 14, 2002
    Messages:
    84,993
    Likes Received:
    83,160
    You can't elevate a sharp slider below your ankles, and if you don't have to worry about the slider in the dirt a 95mph fastball looks a whole lot better to a hitter.

    Per fangraphs, his Runs-Above-Average on his slider went from 11.5 in '17 to -1 in '18 (he pitched half as many innings, but still). His HR/FB rate last season was a quite high (18%), but not egregiously out of line with every other year except '17, when it was a bit more than half of his career average excluding that year.

    He also pretty much abandoned his changeup out of the pen last year, and LHB just absolutely tee'd off on him. I'd like to think he's working on bringing that back into play this season.

    They need some semblance of '17 starter Peacock back. Bigly. An average year for starter McHugh would be good too.
     
    #53 Buck Turgidson, Mar 14, 2019
    Last edited: Mar 14, 2019
    Nook likes this.
  14. Nook

    Nook Member

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2008
    Messages:
    53,805
    Likes Received:
    111,557
    Great post.

    He just never seemed comfortable for a large part of last year.
     
  15. Marteen

    Marteen Member

    Joined:
    Jul 9, 2010
    Messages:
    2,818
    Likes Received:
    1,263
    I think some people looked at his 2015 season thinking he was 19 wins good when he also had run support, he was 10th among starting pitchers. He’s fine as a 4th/5th starter, but I’m not very confident from what I’ve seen lately.
     
  16. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2012
    Messages:
    10,956
    Likes Received:
    14,706
    Even though I agree with you that McHugh’s a fine #4, I feel like pointing this out: since 2014 McHugh is 33rd among all mlb pitchers in fWAR. Better than tons of established starting pitchers like Sonny Gray, Mike Leake, Lance Lynn, Yu Darvish, Ervin Santana, Danny Salazar. Hell hes put up more total value than McCullers. He will be fine in the rotation. Houston’s very likely gonna have to go get a “Playoff #3”, but Miley/McHugh/Peacock/Whitley/James/etc will be more than fine to help them win the division and hold things together until reinforcements arrive.
     
    Marteen likes this.
  17. Mr.Pringles

    Mr.Pringles Member

    Joined:
    Sep 27, 2016
    Messages:
    2,474
    Likes Received:
    1,746
    Dallas Keuchel needs a job.
     
  18. DVauthrin

    DVauthrin Contributing Member

    Joined:
    Nov 4, 1999
    Messages:
    9,186
    Likes Received:
    7,161
    Making snap judgments using Spring Training results is silly (Kyle Tucker last year is a perfect example).

    Pitchers use their outings to work out the kinks and try new things, whether it’s pitch sequencing, a new pitch, etc. If McHugh struggles after March 28 rolls around, then it’s time to worry, but he has a long track record of success as a middle-of-the-rotation starter with the Astros and had an outstanding season in relief last year.
     
    #58 DVauthrin, Mar 14, 2019
    Last edited: Mar 15, 2019
    Htown Stros and Snake Diggit like this.
  19. Htown Stros

    Htown Stros Member

    Joined:
    Aug 29, 2015
    Messages:
    2,781
    Likes Received:
    3,080
    This. Especially given he's adjusting to being a starter again, who knows what he may be working on.
     
  20. edwardc

    edwardc Member

    Joined:
    May 7, 2003
    Messages:
    9,465
    Likes Received:
    7,586
    Yes hr does and would fit right in with this group.
     

Share This Page

  • About ClutchFans

    Since 1996, ClutchFans has been loud and proud covering the Houston Rockets, helping set an industry standard for team fan sites. The forums have been a home for Houston sports fans as well as basketball fanatics around the globe.

  • Support ClutchFans!

    If you find that ClutchFans is a valuable resource for you, please consider becoming a Supporting Member. Supporting Members can upload photos and attachments directly to their posts, customize their user title and more. Gold Supporters see zero ads!


    Upgrade Now