Here's the thing about McHugh... he was an elite bullpen arm last year. I'm just as concerned about losing him in the bully as I am about him re-adjusting to being a starter. We didn't replace him back there... And we lost Sipp. And we lost Smith. James and Framber are young enough that we can't necessarily expect them to replicate last season. Additionally, we can't expect Devo to be Devo any more. I think his pumpkin struck midnight and he's back to being plain old Chris. I love our team. We're the best team in our division by a country mile. We have a deep farm system that will plug some holes either by promotion or via the return they fetch in a trade. But right now... this second... I'm a little nervous about the staff.
Also likely to be without peacock in the pen as he likely starts in the spot everyone thought would go to Josh James
I prefer Peacock in the rotation and James in the pen. Peacock sometimes takes an inning or so to figure it out. You can still be okay as a starter in that situation. In the late innings of a close game that can be a disaster as a reliever. I also like having another power arm in the pen with James.
With basically the whole rotation set to be free agents after the year, I can’t imagine James being healthy and effective and not starting at least a good portion of the year
It depends. They might not get the chance to stretch James out with this injury. If he starts the year in the pen and not in AAA he might not start at all. I think Valdez might be the first guy up if a starter goes down (assuming Peacock is the number 5). Then come the 2nd half of the season you will likely have Whitley getting his first taste in the majors and maybe Bukauskas and Martin.
While you're right we can't "expect" rookies to be good, but people worrying about the pen are expecting quite a bit of failure. Harris, Rondon, Devenski, Valdez, James and Perez aren't all gonna struggle. Decent middle relievers are a dime a dozen in the trade market if we absolutely have to add one. The concern about the rotation having a significant falloff is a more legit one, the bullpen isn't worth being concerned about.
I'm not so sure about this. When Peacock was in the rotation in '17, he was great early and then got burned around the 5th/6th inning or 3rd time through the order: OPS against by PA: 420(1)/691(2)/1002(3)
So what you are saying is that he pitched as long as the average MLB starter, but pitched like an ace during those innings. Not seeing how this is bad for a 5th starter.
I was basing it more off some of his failures in the pen last year. He gave up 11 HRs out of the bullpen in 2018. In 2017 he pitched double the innings (mostly as a starter) and gave up 10. The only guy in the pen even close to his 11 HRs was Devenski with 9 and he was awful last year.
Doesn't a taxed or ineffective rotation effect the bullpen, too? I expressed concern for the staff as a whole, not specifically the bullpen. And while I did express concern, I'm not panicking. But we went into 2018 with Charlie Morton and LMJ as our 4th and 5th starters, for crissakes. We've replaced a Cy Young Award winning lefty with Wade Miley... who was great last season, but only pitched 80 innings in the league that uses only 8 hitters. The two prior seasons he's had an ERA over 5 and 6. We're replacing Uncle Charlie with McHugh, a very good pitcher that hasn't started a game in 2 years. LMJ is being replaced by another converted relief pitcher that hasn't started a game in a year (Peacock). Both of those rotation replacements have been very good starters but excelled in their bullpen roles last year and their replacements will be hard pressed to replicate their production. I'm not saying the sky is falling. I just happen to believe: Verlander, Cole, Keuchel, Morton, McCuller >>>> Verlander, Cole, Miley, McHugh, Peacock and Osuna, Presley, Rondon, Peacock, McHugh, Sipp, Devo > Osuna, Presley, Rondon, Perez, James, Valdez, Devo And sure, we are better positioned than most to withstand this talent drain. And we have so much pitching talent in the minors that could have higher ceilings than almost any of the above mentioned pitchers (almost!). But I am worried about the effect of this attrition on the entirety of the pitching staff. I don't necessarily think the bully is immune to the struggles of the starters. Sorry for the verbosity. I'm obviously ready for real baseball.
This is what people are missing. Our pitching was excellent last year. Compared to our team last year, we're having to replace: Keuchel: 204 innings, 3.74 ERA (#15 in AL) Morton: 167 innings, 3.13 ERA (#7 in AL) McCullers: 128 innings, 3.86 ERA Sipp: 38 innings, 1.68 ERA Bullpen McHugh: 72 innings, 1.99 ERA That's about 600 innings of well-above-average to elite pitching. Our proven replacements are: Wade Miley Starter McHugh Extra half-seasons of Pressly & Osuna Most of a season of Josh James (pushing the boundaries of "proven") However you break it down with moving Peacock around/etc, that's likely a downgrade for those 600 innings barring additional acquisitions. That's OK because the offense has been upgraded and hopefully should take up the slack, but just looking at the pitching side, it seems like a near-lock for a downgrade, even ignoring the fact that our two other aces had elite seasons and no injuries.
This. Seattle and the Rangers are in rebuild mode. The Angels just don't have the pitching. I don't see Oakland repeating its improbable run of luck that it had last season. From the statistical modeling I've seen, we're predicted to win the division by 15 games or so. AL West is the only division that is predicted to be a runaway.
Sipp and McHugh get replaced by Osuna/Pressly. McCullers 128 innings of 3.74 get replaced by McHugh. Morton gets replaced by James/Valdez/Peacock (likely to be a downgrade, but not significant). Keuchel gets replaced by Miley/Whitley (push). Over the course of the season, I’d rather have Keuchel/Morton. But in September/October/November, I like the chances of Whitley/James being just as good if not better.
I would say "Our pitching was excellent last year. " can't be said enough. I would not expect any team to match what the Astros did last year this year. Looking at what the Astros have, Cole Verlander...Best 1,2 punch in baseball Peacock and McHugh's combined ERA over the last three years as starters is 3.82 over 386 innings. Other than Yankees and Indians, I don't think any other AL teams have that much "proven" depth to rotation. I don't like "proven" in regards to pitchers as pitchers can have bad years almost randomly. Osuna, Pressly are a nice top of the pen. Harris and Rondon are nice 7th inning guys. Those guys should get bulk of the high leverage innings unless someone like James pitches better. Astros will likely be in Top 3 or 4 in pitching even if they get jack from guys that aren't "proven".
I'd agree with that - my point is that would be substantially worse than last year. The guy we're losing are not just going to be replaced easily with rookies, FAs, etc. Here were last year's team ERAs and AL rankings: #1: Astros - 3.11 #2: Tampa Bay - 3.74 #4: Yankeees - 3.78 #8: LA Angles - 4.15 The difference between the Astros last year and being top 3-4 was bigger than the difference between #2 and #8.
Everyone realizes we don't have the same pitching staff as last year on paper. Like I mentioned before, we can afford to go with what we have because our division isn't very good and we are prohibitve favorites. They can use the first half to evaluate some of our young arms and then decide what moves we need to make at the deadline. Our farm system is still stacked and Luhnow managed to rebuild the backend of our bullpen last year with Osuna and Pressly without giving up any of our top prospects. Last year was an anomaly. It is unlikely we will have that kind of pitching staff ever again and especially when we have to start paying Correa, Bregman, Altuve, and Springer more money every year. It also appears based on Hinch's comments that White and Kemp are going to be on the opening day roster and we are going with 7 relievers instead of 8. If Peacock is in the rotation we still only have 2 spots really open in the pen. If they go with Valdez or someone else in the rotation and Peacock in the pen they only have one spot open. Osuna Pressly Rondon Harris Devenski (hopefully he figures it out) That only leaves 2 spots for James, Perez, Bukauski, Deetz, Sneed, Guduan, etc, etc
