Nothing is going to change with a no deal Brexit, at least in the short term. If they change anything in the longer term, everyone will have to agree to it. Nobody on the UK side wants to break the peace.
Of course it will. No deal Brexit means leaving with no deal. It means hard border which restricts the movement of trade, goods and people between the North and the South. This is a violation of the treaty. Noone in the UK wants to break peace? You assume they care. Not only the GFA was not even an afterthought in the leave campaign, not only you have the BBC itself making completely infuriating statements that the IR should rejoin the UK but you have some brilliant politicians like Gove claiming that the GFA has been...weaponised by the irish in the last 20 years to harm the british. Absolutely Brilliant. NI and Scotland voted to remain. However their nations dont get a say and dont have a right to determine their future . There are 4 nations in the UK but the only one who gets to make all the decisions are the english and they dont give a damn about the rest.
If you want to get yourself worked up, that is up to you. Just because there are now going to be tariffs, that does not automatically mean everyone needs to load their guns and start killing each other. This is an administrative issue and should be resolvable by reasonable people, if the hotheads can just be kept in check until a mutually acceptable agreement is achieved. If the EU continues to think more highly of themselves than they have any right to, then this border may just continue to provide free trade privileges between the UK and Ireland, at least until the EU elites get over themselves.
You missed the plot. Will the citizens of both sides be able to move and trade freely? If not then there is nothing to discuss. The GFA is clearly written and is not up to interpretations. Hard Border = Breaking the peace treaty In fact your post is a perfect example of what most of the MPs are doing right now. Burying their head in the sand. We dont want it to happen...its not a big issue....we agreed on anything else but the Irish Border...we will find an imaginary solution! Unicorns and phoenix feathers. Well guess what? Wanting it or not it is happening.
They have to believe that the worst possible scenario is 100% going to happen, otherwise they can't scare anyone into staying in the EU.....and right now project fear is all they have going for them.
The UK parliament and government have agreed with the EU on everything but the Northern Irish problem. Out of 600+ pages of the withdrawal agreement there is only a couple of lines they dont agree. Let me make it clear. THE HEART AND ROOT OF THE UK AND EU DISAGREEMENTS IS THE PRESERVATION OF THE GFA. If the UK government thought it was only an.."administrative" issue and it only took a little time to fix then Mays deal would pass. Because the backstop will last only until the Irish Uk border has a viable solution that preserves peace. Since its just project fear and a piece of cake to fix it then why are they desperate to put time limits until 2022? Sounds they arent that confident and want to weasel their way out of being responsible for breaking the treaty. L O L
Some times you just have to figure it out and refrain from overreacting until you get that done. If you can. That is doable here, regardless of what you think.
It DID pass. Today. With the amendments noted above. I am going to give you a minute to digest that for a bit, while keeping in mind that the first vote went down in flames by a 2-1 margin.
The first one.. The one that passed today was veryy detailed. "Alternative solutions to the backstop". Unicorns and castles in the sky. The fact is that if anyone in Westminster thought that it will be as easy as you claim to solve the hard border a temporary backstop as Mays deal suggested would be welcomed with open arms. But it is not thats why they try to evade the backstop alltogether or put time limits on it. There is no solution without a backstop or a custom union. What to do? Thats why they basically voted for when they voted Leave. I want to see how the english media will react on march 30 at the first signs of civil disobedience at the hard border. The Northern Irish have signed the GFA after splitting their blood for centuries.
Well, those are not the only solutions. Another one was mentioned to you yesterday, and you almost came unglued.
Nigel Farage and Jean Claude Junker, two adversaries ever there were any, weigh in after the votes in Parliament yesterday: Farage demands no deal exit as Juncker REFUSES to budge “Why don’t we all prepare sensibly for a no deal scenario?” The former Ukip leader urged the EU and UK to immediately enter talks with the WTO to strike a two-year free trade agreement which he said would avoid the need for the controversial Irish border backstop. His call comes after senior EU figures, including Mr Juncker, dismissed the result of yesterday’s Commons vote which saw MPs back a motion to replace the backstop with “alternative arrangements”. Mr Juncker said he hoped a deal is possible but warned the terms already on offer remain "the best and only deal possible". {More at the link} This sums up the state of affairs very nicely. And whether Junker realizes it or not, his position means that the two of them are effectively in agreement on agreeing to a no-deal Brexit.
The European Commission is apparently telling the UK that it must pay the £39 billion Brexit bill, even if there is no deal. Brussels orders Britain to pay £39bn Brexit bill even if there is no deal Britain must pay the £39 billion Brexit bill even if it leaves the EU without a deal, the European Commission has warned. Britain agreed to pay the financial settlement to the EU, which include EU Budget payments up to 2020, to cover its liabilities to the bloc and unlock talks over the future relationship. As it released a new set of no deal Brexit plans in Brussels on Wednesday, the commission said, "all commitments taken by the 28 Member States should be honoured by the 28 Member States." "This is also true in a “no-deal” scenario, where the UK would be expected to continue to honour all commitments made during EU membership. And yet many in the UK are not seeing it that way, including very possibly Theresa May: EU's plot to make UK pay £39BN EVEN in no-deal divorce In December 2017, Theresa May agreed to pay the so-called Brexit bill to cover the UK’s financial liabilities on leaving the EU – the pledge allowed the negotiations to move past the first phase. But over the course of the turbulent negotiations, the Prime Minister and two of her former Brexit secretaries have raised the prospect of forfeiting the vast payments to Brussels if a deal wasn’t concluded by March 29, 2019. In September 2018, Mrs May told MPs that the “specific offer was made in our desire to reach a deal with the European Union. And on the basis that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed, without a deal the position changes”. Prediction: Even if the UK exits with no deal, the UK government will likely come around and pay this amount to the EU, but not before publicly rubbing the EU's face in it for while before they do. What do you think about this?
Well if the UK leaves with no deal the EU won't really get a say as to if the UK decides to give them money after that now will they? I mean I get why the EU would want the UK to keep paying them but they'd be powerless to force them to.
Or to put that almost the opposite way, is anyone really expecting the EU to tell the UK they do not have to pay, if they leave with no deal? This money is what the UK was going to pay FOR the deal. But if there is no deal, then....
Nah lol They didnt pay a cent for the withdrawal agreement waste of resources, time and efforts. Thats the money they owe from the last budget, for which they already have received the benefits. If they dont try to renege on their debt they will be dragged to the International Court of Justice to be sactioned and forget about any trade deal. In fact the UK should pay a 500mil euro bill for every month they want to extend article 50. Want us to give you mercy so you dont jump off the cliff unprepared? Pay or it wont be ratified. Fun Fact: WTO terms means 42% tarriffs on lamb and 46-82% tarrifs on beef. 60% of all lamb meat are exported to the EU and sheep and turnips are the main things that grow in great britain. GOOD LUCK.
Btw..we are NOT at the stage of any trade deal. Mays deal , Chequers etc were not trade deals. They were withdrawal agreements. Meaning a basic vagueish frame to base the future relationship. The trade deals would have happened after that and it would take multiple years. A lot of countries overlooked their bilateral issues with the UK to pass first the general withdrawal agreement because these issues would have come in the real trade deal. The most important of these issues is Gibraltar.
