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Ranking Teams By Tiers (ESPN)

Discussion in 'NBA Dish' started by jman7373, Aug 27, 2014.

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jman7373 Member

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http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/11417448/cleveland-cavaliers-enter-season-team-most-likely-win-nba-title-nba

Ranking NBA teams by tiers
Breaking down title contenders, playoff contenders and bottom-feeders
Updated: August 27, 2014, 12:36 PM ET
By Bradford Doolittle | ESPN Insider

Change might be the way of the world, but that's not always readily apparent in the NBA.

It can often feel like the same teams keep generating the same results year after year. The Chicago Bulls of the 1990s won six of eight titles, and had Michael Jordan not retired, it might have been eight of eight. The Bill Russell-led Boston Celtics won 11 titles in 13 years. The Spurs have won at least 50 games (including prorated strike seasons) in 17 straight seasons. You get the idea.

Change does come, even in the NBA, and this summer it feels like we had our fair share of movement on the team hierarchy ladder. It starts in Cleveland, where LeBron James and Kevin Love hope to super-charge the Cavaliers, and the outlook has changed drastically for a few other teams as well.

Just before the start of the 2014-15 season, we sorted teams into tiers based on projections, and we're repeating the process today to see where teams stand after a tumultuous offseason. Team baseline win projections have been formulated by combining early SCHOENE forecasts with team projections generated by the same RPM-based methodology we used last week to rank players.

The hope is to balance out any inherent biases within the two systems and, in reality, the forecasts are pretty close for all but a couple of teams. Baseline wins were plugged into a Monte Carlo-style simulator of the 2014-15 schedule that accounted for home-court advantage and other scheduling factors. Finally, the top eight players on each team were used to calculate a postseason baseline, and using the seeds from each simulated regular season, the playoffs were played out. This process was repeated 1,000 times.

The results of all those probabilities and random numbers serve as the basis for separating the teams in tiers below. A lot has changed since last season. (To see just how much, just click on the final version of last spring's Hollinger Playoff Odds.) Each team's average win total in the 1,000 simulations is listed in parenthesis.

Title contenders

(Teams that won a championship in at least 5 percent of simulations, ordered by title odds)
Cleveland Cavaliers (68.3), Los Angeles Clippers (61.1), Chicago Bulls (57.4), San Antonio Spurs (57.1)

[+] EnlargeDerrick Rose
Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images
Derrick Rose must return to his peak form for the Bulls to be an NBA title contender.
There is nothing but downside to Cleveland's forecast. Teams just don't project to win 68 games. Projections are actually an optimistic snapshot of a team, since we don't know who's going to get hurt, or who is going to tank down the stretch. Forecasts are regressed -- a 38-percent career 3-point shooter who shot 29 percent last year will project to shoot much closer to his established norm. Conversely, players coming off career seasons are forecast to decline, if only a little. Almost by definition, forecasts aren't meant to produce outliers. Yet here are the Cavaliers, whose initial win baseline (about 64 wins) was boosted even further once it was plugged into an Eastern Conference-friendly schedule. As a result, Cleveland won a whopping 59 percent of the simulated titles. Should Cleveland be considered the clear championship front-runner? Perhaps. Continuity matters, though, and until we've seen just how well James, Love, Kyrie Irving and Dion Waiters will mesh, we have to believe these forecasts are bloated. Nevertheless, it's a nice starting point.

The Bulls actually were on this tier at this time last year, when we didn't know Derrick Rose would be injured again, and it's no surprise that Chicago would show up here again. The Clippers, on paper, appear to have passed San Antonio, but, as always, the Spurs are held back by aging factors which might not actually apply to an organization that transcends anything approaching a trend. The fact that the Spurs' on-paper forecast is this strong is amazing given the age of their core. The other thing that must be noted is that they are the only West teams that made it into this tier, suggesting that the Clippers and Spurs have separated themselves from the rest.

Second tier
(Teams that won at least 1 percent of simulations but less than 5 percent, ordered by title odds)

Oklahoma City Thunder (56.9); Houston Rockets (51.7); Portland Trail Blazers (51.0)

As you can see, the Thunder's win total should put it into the first tier, right where you'd think they'd be. However, OKC won just 2.5 percent of the simulations. That's not just due to the expected strength of the Clippers and Spurs, but also the Cavaliers. The Thunder won about 11 percent of the simulated Western Conference titles, but fell short in most matchups with Cleveland. However you slice it, the road to the 2015 championship shapes up to be an arduous one.

Playoff contenders
(Teams that won less than one percent of the simulations but made the playoffs at least 15 percent of the time, ordered by playoff probability)

Toronto Raptors (47.2), Washington Wizards (47.0), Golden State Warriors (53.4), Atlanta Hawks (43.1), Miami Heat (42.2), Charlotte Hornets (42.1), Dallas Mavericks (50.8), Detroit Pistons (39.0), Memphis Grizzlies (46.8), New Orleans Pelicans (45.3), Phoenix Suns (43.7)

Disconnect between the Warriors' win baseline and their postseason odds is a product of two things. First, as you might guess, the playoff road in the West is wicked, and the Warriors simply didn't successfully traverse the Clippers-Spurs-Thunder minefield very often. The other part of it is that the Warriors' boiled-down playoff rotation didn't measure up, which is why they fell short of the Rockets and Blazers. In the East, either the Raptors or Wizards figure to be the team most likely upset the two-club power structure in that conference.

Stuck in the middle
(Teams that made the playoffs in less than 15 percent of the simulations but averaged more than 25 wins per simulation, ordered by playoff probability)

Indiana Pacers (34.1), Brooklyn Nets (33.9), New York Knicks (28.2), Boston Celtics (26.9), Denver Nuggets (34.1), Minnesota Timberwolves (32.8), Utah Jazz (27.9), Sacramento Kings (25.3), Milwaukee Bucks (25.0)

Knicks and Nets fans have to be startled by these initial projections. In the Knicks' case, there is really no basis for objective optimism, and the numbers get worse when you consider their grim picture painted by New York's collective RPM ratings. Of these teams, you have to look at Denver as the team most likely to move up a tier into playoff contention in the West. In the East, the Nets can surely move up if Brook Lopez and Deron Williams reach something close to optimum health.

Jahlil Okafor or Emmanuel Mudiay?
(Teams that averaged fewer than 25 wins per simulation, ordered by projected wins)

Los Angeles Lakers (23.1), Orlando Magic (22.1), Philadelphia 76ers (10.9)

Both SCHOENE and RPM are in agreement about the Magic and Sixers, though it would be a mild surprise if Orlando is actually this bad. As for the Lakers, RPM methodology sees them as about a 24-win team in a vacuum. SCHOENE is at around 30 wins. There is no optimism to be found in either forecast. When you combine those numbers and run them through the gauntlet of a Western Conference schedule, you get the worst season in Lakers history. If the Kobe Bryant of 10 years shows up, sure, things will look better. But it seems like a big "if."
Click to expand...

#1 jman7373, Aug 27, 2014

DreamShook Member

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I'm fine with the results.

#2 DreamShook, Aug 27, 2014
mfastx Member

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Sounds about right, 4th in the West.

Much different than 8th seed, lol.

#3 mfastx, Aug 27, 2014
smoothie Jabari Jungle

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looks like another matchup with the blazers lol. great.

#4 smoothie, Aug 27, 2014
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They're saying we will be 5th and will be matched with GS who are 4th

#5 vlaurelio, Aug 27, 2014
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smoothie said: ↑

looks like another matchup with the blazers lol. great.
Click to expand...

My heart can't take another series like that...

#6 J Sizzle, Aug 27, 2014
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Slightly surprised that the Bulls are so high.

#7 Juxtaposed Jolt, Aug 27, 2014

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That is a pretty good result considering it is all based on projections. One would imagine that our unknown parts are capable of more than a low projection would give them. And if we make a move that adds a rotation player, all the more improved.

I think we are still 4th in the West (worst case).

#8 DrNuegebauer, Aug 27, 2014
TheRealAllpro Morey only fan

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Should flip Clippers and Thunder...Thunder have had way more playoff success

#9 TheRealAllpro, Aug 27, 2014
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TheRealAllpro said: ↑

Should flip Clippers and Thunder...Thunder have had way more playoff success
Click to expand...

they aren't improving at all, and they haven't since they traded james. The Clippers have way more room to improve

#10 rhino17, Aug 27, 2014
what Member

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The clippers haven't gotten out of the second round in how many years? The Bulls are overrated along with Noah. The rockets and the trailblazers are overrated as well.

I'd take OKC to beat any team on that list except the spurs. Of course the grizzlies are underrated because they don't have star power.

My list would be:
1. Spurs
2. OKC
3. Memphis
4. Cavs
5. Pelicans

I think the pelicans are going to make some noise next year and probably get to at least the 2nd round of the playoffs, in a 4/5 battle with the clippers.

#11 what, Aug 27, 2014
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I'm fine with our placement. We definitely have a lot of work to do and things to prove. Like Morey said, he expects us to be a much better team by playoff time and I believe we will be. I like how we are shifting our mindset and balance more defensively with our signings of Ariza, Dorsey and Adrien and adding guys like Johnson. If Harden brings USA defensive intensity this season, we should have a top 5 defense with a top 5 offense to match.

Personally, I think the Bulls and Blazers are ranked too high.

The feel good story of the NBA will be the return of Rose but ESPN is treating it like Rose is going to be 100% back to normal and even better than he was in his MVP season. I just don't see that happening but will be happy for Rose if it does. I do like the addition on Gasol and if Mirotic is as good as advertised then great but I think they should have been ranked in the second teir.

Portland is getting way too much love from ESPN. Does ESPN really think the additions of Blake and Kaman will propel the Blazers to being in the second tier? It's not like Portland brought players in to solve their biggest problem i.e. defense. Portland had a great year last year, yes but it was also very lucky. Only LMA missed time and even then they only had 2 different starting lineups the whole season. Will that ever happen again?

#12 RocketsJumer, Aug 27, 2014
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It's a little hard to see, but this is the projected order

1. Clips
2. Spurs
3. OKC
4. GSW
5. Hou
6. Port
7. Dal
8. Mem

#13 WinkFan, Aug 27, 2014

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what said: ↑

The clippers haven't gotten out of the second round in how many years? The Bulls are overrated along with Noah. The rockets and the trailblazers are overrated as well.

I'd take OKC to beat any team on that list except the spurs. Of course the grizzlies are underrated because they don't have star power.

My list would be:
1. Spurs
2. OKC
3. Memphis
4. Cavs
5. Pelicans

I think the pelicans are going to make some noise next year and probably get to at least the 2nd round of the playoffs, in a 4/5 battle with the clippers.
Click to expand...

I know you're a big Memphis fan but do you really think they will be the third best team? Memphis is a great team, no doubt but they're not a top 5 team even with how underrated they are and will be. I can see Memphis as a 6th seed.

The Pelicans as a top 5 team, too? No offense, but that must be a joke. I will admit that a Asik/Davis frontcourt scares the crap out of me and that team can beat any team in the league with the talent of Davis, Evans, and Holliday but they won't be a top 5 team? They are an injure to Davis away from being a subpar team. They will fight for the 8th seed out West, but fall short at the end.

#14 RocketsJumer, Aug 27, 2014
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what said: ↑

The clippers haven't gotten out of the second round in how many years? The Bulls are overrated along with Noah. The rockets and the trailblazers are overrated as well.

I'd take OKC to beat any team on that list except the spurs. Of course the grizzlies are underrated because they don't have star power.

My list would be:
1. Spurs
2. OKC
3. Memphis
4. Cavs
5. Pelicans

I think the pelicans are going to make some noise next year and probably get to at least the 2nd round of the playoffs, in a 4/5 battle with the clippers.
Click to expand...

L

M

F

A

O

#15 J Sizzle, Aug 27, 2014
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It's hilarious how overrated the bulls are!

#16 JMAD21, Aug 27, 2014
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The bulls are getting way to much love, Derrick rose is a very good player but that lucky MVP he won 4 years ago is clouding ppl judgment in his return. Do ppl not remember the yr he had after his MVP yr? It was good but not great I expect him to not even be a 20 ppg scorer this yr.

I also just for some reason don't see te clippers as being a real title contender. I think they can win 60 games but I'm just not sold on Chris Paul/ Blake griffin pair. First off I'm never gonna call any team with it's best player being a pg a true title contender till they prove me wrong. PGs just don't win rings. I honestly think the rockets are going to win a lot more games then people think. We won't get out to such a rough start this yr like last.

No twin tower experiment this yr.

#17 YaoMing#1, Aug 27, 2014
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feel like the nets are being under appreciated.

#18 oogie boogie, Aug 27, 2014

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oogie boogie said: ↑

feel like the nets are being under appreciated.
Click to expand...

They lost two of their biggest playmakers in Pierce and Livingston, Garnett is a walking corpse, and they are one Lopez injury from mediocrity.

I'd bet on them not even making the playoffs.

#19 shastarocket, Aug 28, 2014
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I can't believe no one has mentioned that first paragraph.

The rockets winning back to back get no damn credit.

#20 peleincubus, Aug 28, 2014

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