Who Will Be the #1 Overall Pick?

tellitlikeitis · Mar 31, 2014

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Tyler Kolek is a high school senior from Shepherd who pitches as fast as 102 mph: <a href="http://t.co/aAHpHWtE3S">http://t.co/aAHpHWtE3S</a></p>— Texas Monthly (@TexasMonthly) <a href="https://twitter.com/TexasMonthly/statuses/450663282462826496">March 31, 2014</a></blockquote>
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Perfect Game's Kendall Rogers, who normally covers college baseball for them, couldn't pass up an opportunity to check out Kolek this past weekend. He lives in Spring, I think.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Kolek? Very good. FB was up to 99, SL is big-time. RT <a href="https://twitter.com/kcmgallo905">@kcmgallo905</a>: <a href="https://twitter.com/KendallRogersPG">@KendallRogersPG</a> how did he pitc</p>— Kendall Rogers (@KendallRogersPG) <a href="https://twitter.com/KendallRogersPG/statuses/450107819467870208">March 30, 2014</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Elite RHP Tyler Kolek 96-98 in the first inning, smashing the inside corner. Also threw a couple of CBs at 81-83. <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23mlbdraft&src=hash">#mlbdraft</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/PerfectGameUSA">@PerfectGameUSA</a></p>— Kendall Rogers (@KendallRogersPG) <a href="https://twitter.com/KendallRogersPG/statuses/450048280752164864">March 29, 2014</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>RHP Tyler Kolek filthy in the second. Strikes out the side on 97 FB, as a pair of 81 mph sliders. SL wasn't fair with that FB. <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23mlbdraft&src=hash">#mlbdraft</a></p>— Kendall Rogers (@KendallRogersPG) <a href="https://twitter.com/KendallRogersPG/statuses/450053200414908416">March 29, 2014</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Pretty impressed w/ Tyler Kolek's ability to hold velocity. Touched 99 in the fourth inning, sitting 96-98 still. As advertised. <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23mlbdraft&src=hash">#mlbdraft</a></p>— Kendall Rogers (@KendallRogersPG) <a href="https://twitter.com/KendallRogersPG/statuses/450064093118861312">March 30, 2014</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Tyler Kolek finishes w/ 98 FB. Showed a nasty 81 mph slider in fifth. Five innings complete game, 13 Ks. <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23mlbdraft&src=hash">#mlbdraft</a> <a href="http://t.co/O5nO0jSGws">pic.twitter.com/O5nO0jSGws</a></p>— Kendall Rogers (@KendallRogersPG) <a href="https://twitter.com/KendallRogersPG/statuses/450068640990105600">March 30, 2014</a></blockquote>
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No Worries · Apr 1, 2014

The Beard said: ↑

This isn't football where you draft for immediate help
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Not only is there a 2-3 year development time needed to prep a college arm for the MLB, there is less than a 50% chance for those second and third round college arms to actually making it to the MLB.

tellitlikeitis · Apr 1, 2014

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Tyler Kolek up to 62 K/1 BB over 27.1 innings. Has allowed three hits. <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23MLBDraft&src=hash">#MLBDraft</a></p>— Dan Kirby (@DanMKirby) <a href="https://twitter.com/DanMKirby/statuses/450668619551084544">March 31, 2014</a></blockquote>
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HstnSprtsFan101 · Apr 1, 2014

Kolek is definitely very intruiging, making a case for himself. Especially if Rodon wants too much $ like Appel in 2012. The one BB is the main thing for me, shows he's a pitcher and not just a hard thrower. I'm still all about Rodon though, would rather have a proven college ace who will move quickly through the system

J.R. · Apr 3, 2014

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>A scout I respect tremendously tells me NC State's Carlos Rodon is no longer viewed by the Astros as a slam dunk choice for the 1st pick.</p>— Jose de Jesus Ortiz (@OrtizKicks) <a href="https://twitter.com/OrtizKicks/statuses/451725535530340352">April 3, 2014</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>I'd be shocked if the Astros take RHP Tyler Kolek, but the big country kid from outside of Houston will be seen by a huge Astros group soon.</p>— Jose de Jesus Ortiz (@OrtizKicks) <a href="https://twitter.com/OrtizKicks/statuses/451726181239238656">April 3, 2014</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>The Astros have done plenty of homework on Kolek, and the kid checks lots of boxes off the field as well.</p>— Jose de Jesus Ortiz (@OrtizKicks) <a href="https://twitter.com/OrtizKicks/statuses/451727098894229504">April 3, 2014</a></blockquote>
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Roc Paint · Apr 3, 2014

I love when Houston brings in local talent.

juicystream · Apr 3, 2014

Roc Paint said: ↑

I love when Houston brings in local talent.
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Passed on Kohl Stewart last year, who was similarly the top ranked prep arm, and from Houston, though I believe Kolek is more highly regarded.

Amazing for one city to do that two years running.

juicystream · Apr 3, 2014

One thing Rodon has going for him is that Hoffman hasn't really helped himself so far this season either. Beede has, but had fallen back so far, that I don't think he is a legit candidate.

Seems like it would be Rodon/Kolek/Alex Jackson up for the top pick to me, and in that order.

bigtexxx · Apr 5, 2014

Rodon about to take the loss again today. NC State down 6-1 in the late innings. Rodon has given up 11 hits through 7 and 2/3rds

J.R. · Apr 7, 2014

Rodon's draft stock continues to drop

We're now less than two months away from the MLB draft, and while common sense would tell you that the consensus at the top would be clearing up, things are much murkier than they were in February. This weekend did very little to change that situation, with mixed results from the top college pitchers in the class, more dominating efforts from two of the better prep hurlers, and a continued lack of success for the top collegiate bats from the right side.

Rodon struggles again

• Though there have been flashes of brilliance, it's been a disappointing season for NC State left-hander Carlos Rodon, who has gone from being the overwhelming favorite to be the first pick in the draft to a player who is no longer considered a lock for the top three. Still, there's plenty of time for the Wolfpack ace to show the dominance he had shown the previous two seasons, and many have pointed out that he wasn't at his best until later in the 2013 campaign.

Those looking to see that run of domination start on Saturday, though, likely came away disappointed.

Rodon gave up 11 hits over his eight innings in his start against Clemson, giving up six runs (three earned) in the process while striking out five. He didn't walk anyone -- and as you can see from the stat line his defense once again didn't give him much support -- but his slider was once again not the 80-grade offering it was during his junior year, and his fastball command was only average and sat 90-93 mph most of the afternoon.

"It wasn't a good outing," an AL area scout said. "There's no denying that the defense hasn't helped him all season, but he's not finishing off hitters at all, and anytime there was adversity it seems like he left a pitch up. At some point you have to wonder if this is just what he is, a first-round arm but not the [No. 1 overall] guy we all thought he was."

It's still difficult to imagine that Rodon won't go in the top six picks of the draft, with the likeliest destinations still being either the Houston Astros, Miami Marlins or Chicago Cubs, and there's little to no chance he gets past the Seattle Mariners if he were to drop that far.

• After a sensational start to his season, Tyler Beede had been pedestrian, at best, over his last two efforts; and it looked like the Vanderbilt right-hander was on his way to another rough outing Friday against Tennessee when he gave up three runs in the first inning. He settled down considerably after the first, however, giving up just one more run on the afternoon over a career high eight innings, while walking two and striking out six.

"I liked the way [Beede] battled," an AL West scout said. "He clearly didn't have his best stuff, and there have been reports that sometimes when he doesn't have it he'll implode. The curveball wasn't there all night, but he did the best he could with what he had against a pretty good Tennessee lineup. I took more positives than negatives out of the outings and that's always a good thing."

Beede has been linked to several teams picking in the top 10, including the Minnesota Twins,Chicago White Sox and Colorado Rockies.

Aiken solidifies his stock

• All Brady Aiken has done since his season began last month is impress, and once again Aiken was on top of his game on Wednesday. The prep lefty from San Diego's Cathedral Catholic no-hit La Jolla High, striking out 10 in the process. The UCLA commit now has struck out 40 hitters in his 24 innings of work this season, and has yet to give up an earned run.

"If [Aiken] isn't the best high-school pitcher in the class, I don't know who is," an AL crosschecker said. "The fastball wasn't at its best on Wednesday -- I think he only touched 94 a couple of times, but he showed a plus breaking ball and he commanded everything pretty well, too. I really think he's got a chance to be a special arm."

Aiken currently ranks in the top spot of Keith Law's top 50, and if he keeps pitching the way he has over the past five weeks, he's got a chance to be the very first player taken in the draft.

• Conway (S.C.) High's Grant Holmes hasn't gotten the hype of some of the other prep pitchers in this year's class, but teams have certainly taken notice of the right-hander's performance this spring.

Holmes struck out 16 in his start against Florence High last week; touching 97 mph with his fastball with a plus power curveball; he also flashed a plus change that he's shown improving feel for.

"The only thing that keeps [Holmes] from being a top-five pick is his size," an AL Central scout said of the 6-foot-2, 200 pound righty. "There just isn't much projection left, and I know that concerns some teams. In my humble estimation though, the fact that he's so close to a finished product makes him appealing. I don't think he's an ace, but a solid No. 2 who can miss bats isn't out of the question."

Holmes has a chance to go in the top ten, and could make sense to clubs like the Toronto Blue Jays, Colorado Rockies and Milwaukee Brewers.

Right-handed bats fail to impress

Assuming you've been following the draft for a while, you've likely heard talk about how this is another weak year for college bats, and with good reason. It's particularly weak in terms of right-handed hitters this year, and the two who rank near the top all continued to frustrate scouts this weekend.

• NC State shortstop Trea Turner entered the 2014 season with a chance to be one of the first five names taken in this year's draft -- with a non-zero chance of being the first name to come off the board -- but a disappointing junior campaign has squashed that talk so far.

Turner's inconsistent ways were on full display this weekend as he went 0-for-3 with a walk on Saturday while also committing two errors on the afternoon, giving him six for the season. He followed that effort up with a 4-for-5 game on Sunday, but the lack of power projection and the defensive lapses have seen Turner's stock drop significantly.

"As inconsistent as Rodon has been, I honestly have been more disappointed with Turner," an NL area scout said. Coming into the year I thought he was a 60 [on the 20-80 scouting scale] hitter with 80 speed and at least a 55 defender, but he's a half grade or worse lower than that in every area. There's guarantee that he's not a utility guy, and you can't take a utility guy in the top 10."

There's still time for Turner to rebound, but right now he looks more like a mid-first round selection that could be in play for teams like the Los Angeles Angels, Kansas City Royals and San Francisco Giants.

• It appeared early on that Max Pentecost had a chance to be the top catcher in the class. And while he's more likely to end up at the position than Indiana's Kyle Schwarber, he's no wear near as advanced offensively, as seen in his performance Friday and Saturday. The Kennesaw State backstop went 2-for-8 combined Friday and Saturday -- both hits being singles -- and despite showing above-average power in batting practice, the right-handed hitting backstop has hit just three homers this year.

"I think it just depends on what your expectation level is [with Pentecost]," an NL scout said. "If you go in thinking you're going to be a potential all-star -- and a lot of us did feel that way after February -- then you're going to come away disappointed. But if you go in without huge expectations, you'll see a catcher who can play 120 games and give you 10-15 homers a year, and you could do a lot worse than that."

Pentecost still looks like a day-one lock, and could go late in the first round to a team like theDetroit Tigers or in the compensation round to a team like Cincinnati Reds.
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awc713 · Apr 7, 2014

i was all in on rodon, but his decreased speeds are especially concerning.

very frustrating not only to have 3 straight #1s, but not to have a clear, consensus #1 pick any year. was really hoping rodon was that guy, but it doesnt look like it right now.

Nick · Apr 7, 2014

awc713 said: ↑

i was all in on rodon, but his decreased speeds are especially concerning.

very frustrating not only to have 3 straight #1s, but not to have a clear, consensus #1 pick any year. was really hoping rodon was that guy, but it doesnt look like it right now.
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I could care less about consensus #1's as it still is all about how they perform once they actually play ball.

So far, Correa looks to be every bit the #1 guy this team needs. Appel will need more time to evaluate, but considering he was in the running to be the #1 guy the year before and got better... he really was more of a stand-out prospect than being given credit for.

Its still largely a crap-shoot. The Rays had 3 #1 picks, and only one of them (Price) turned out to be the "guy". The ratio of "franchise-player" to #1 picks in MLB is still very low... over the last 20 years, I'd consider only Mauer and A-Rod to be that sort of player, with Harper still too young to make a determination on.

juicystream · Apr 7, 2014

awc713 said: ↑

i was all in on rodon, but his decreased speeds are especially concerning.

very frustrating not only to have 3 straight #1s, but not to have a clear, consensus #1 pick any year. was really hoping rodon was that guy, but it doesnt look like it right now.
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I won't complain about the 2012 draft. Correa & Buxton look like stars.

No Worries · Apr 7, 2014

Giving up 3 ERs over 8 innings? Rodon, how could you?

juicystream · Apr 7, 2014

No Worries said: ↑

Giving up 3 ERs over 8 innings? Rodon, how could you?
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The 11 hits & only 5 Ks are the the problem stats.

No Worries · Apr 7, 2014

juicystream said: ↑

The 11 hits & only 5 Ks are the the problem stats.
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Incorrect. The problem stat is 8 innings. Small sample size.

juicystream · Apr 7, 2014

No Worries said: ↑

Incorrect. The problem stat is 8 innings. Small sample size.
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It isn't just 8 innings. Hasn't been great this season.

No Worries · Apr 7, 2014

juicystream said: ↑

It isn't just 8 innings. Hasn't been great this season.
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I'll willing to wait until the college season is over before taking a serious look at Rodon's stats.

HTown_DieHard · Apr 7, 2014

No Worries said: ↑

I'll willing to wait until the college season is over before taking a serious look at Rodon's stats.
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But.. But... Tyler Kolek is dominating Texas 3A HS...

I don't even know anymore.

Disappointing to see Rodon's FB velocity sit at 90-93.. NCST has pitched him into the ground the past two seasons. Perhaps it's finally taking a toll?

Htown is seriously cursed.

Roc Paint · Apr 7, 2014

juicystream said: ↑

Passed on Kohl Stewart last year, who was similarly the top ranked prep arm, and from Houston, though I believe Kolek is more highly regarded.

Amazing for one city to do that two years running.
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Didn't we pick Mark Appel last year?

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Who Will Be the #1 Overall Pick?

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