My (Very) Early Top-30 Prospects for 2014

Update by positions:

POINT GUARD: Overall a poor class for PGs. Smart is a elite prospect, but a combo guard (but not in the traditional "bad" sense). Carson is an undersized scoring dynamo. Harrison is all upside/physical tools, but has shown little in terms of his actual PG ability. Christon is another upside guy. C

1. Marcus Smart | PG/SG | 6’4” 225 | Oklahoma State | 19 | #4 OVR
2. Jahii Carson | PG | 5’10” 175 | Arizona State | 21 | #25 OVR
3. Andrew Harrison | PG/SG | 6’5” 210 | Kentucky | 19 | #27 OVR
4. Semaj Christon | PG/SG | 6’3” 195 | Xavier | 21 | #31 OVR

Others: Tyler Ennis [Syracuse]; Vasilije Micic [Serbia]; Elfrid Payton [L.Lafayette]

SHOOTING GUARD: What a great/deep group of SGs. Exum, like Smart, is a top combo. LaVine is rising rapidly with his athleticism/stroke/upside. Young and Selden are freshman with upside but have a lot of developing to do. Adams and Harris are rock-solid 2 way players. Hezonja is a wild-card. Wilcox and Stauskas are underrated shooters, while Dinwiddie/Clarkson are big combos with some playmaking ability. A

1. Dante Exum | SG/PG | 6’6” 185 | Australia | 18 | #6 OVR
2. Zach LaVine | SG | 6’5” 180 | UCLA | 18 | #7 OVR
3. James Young | SG/SF | 6’6” 210 | Kentucky | 18 | #16 OVR
4. Mario Hezonja | SG/SF | 6’6” 200 | Croatia | 18 | #17 OVR
5. Wayne Selden | SG | 6’5” 230 | Kansas | 19 | #18 OVR
6. Jordan Adams | SG | 6’5” 220 | UCLA | 19 | #19 OVR
7. Gary Harris | SG | 6’4” 210 | Michigan State | 19 | #21 OVR
8. Aaron Harrison | SG | 6’5” 210 | Kentucky | 19 | #28 OVR
9. Spencer Dinwiddie | SG/PG | 6’6” 205 | Colorado | 20 | #29 OVR
10. CJ Wilcox | SG | 6’5” 190 | Washington | 22 | #30 OVR
11. Jordan Clarkson | SG/PG | 6’4” 185 | Missouri | 21 | #33 OVR
12. Nik Stauskas | SG | 6’5” 205 | Michigan | 20 | #34 OVR

Others: Markel Brown [Oklahoma State]

SMALL FORWARD: I don't have a concrete stance on the Parker/Wiggins debate, but right now Bari is my #2 OVR (barely - both have strong cases). Hood is a smooth athlete with range. Warren is one of the best scorers around. Grant has incredible defensive upside. GR3 is an underachiever but is talented nonetheless. Dekker is solid across the board. A-

1. Jabari Parker | SF/PF | 6’8” 240 | Duke | 18 | #2 OVR
2. Andrew Wiggins | SF | 6’8” 205 | Kansas | 18 | #3 OVR
3. Rodney Hood | SF | 6’8” 210 | Duke | 21 | #9 OVR
4. Jerami Grant | SF/PF | 6’9” 210 | Syracuse | 19 | #14 OVR
5. TJ Warren | SF | 6’8” 235 | NC State | 20 | #15 OVR
6. Glenn Robinson III | SF/SG | 6’6” 210 | Michigan | 19 | #24 OVR
7. Sam Dekker | SF | 6’7” 210 | Wisconsin | 19 | #32 OVR

Others: PJ Hairston [North Carolina]; Kyle Anderson [UCLA]; CJ Fair [Syracuse]

POWER FORWARD: Some interesting talents amongst this group. Randle is a great bet to be a 20-10 guy, but I wonder about his D. Vonleh is an old-school big. Gordon is an athletic tweener, but he seems to have a higher IQ than some recent 3/4 busts. Harrell's motor is top-notch, Saric has great versatility, McDermott can shoot lights out, and Walker is all raw upside. B+

1. Julius Randle | PF | 6’9” 250 | Kentucky | 18 | #5 OVR
2. Noah Vonleh | PF | 6’10” 240 | Indiana | 18 | #8 OVR
3. Aaron Gordon | PF/SF | 6’8” 220 | Arizona | 18 | #10 OVR
4. Montrezl Harrell | PF | 6’8” 250 | Louisville | 19 | #12 OVR
5. Dario Saric | PF/SF | 6’10” 225 | Croatia | 19 | #13 OVR
6. Doug McDermott | PF/SF | 6’7” 230 | Creighton | 21 | #22 OVR
7. Chris Walker | PF | 6’9” 210 | Florida | 18 | #35 OVR

Others: Perry Ellis [Kansas]; Dwight Powell [Stanford]; Cory Jefferson [Baylor]

CENTER: Embiid at #1 OVR?? For now, yes (though my top-3 OVR are pretty much tied). He has everything you'd want on both ends at the most important position on the court, and you can see his rapid growth. WCS is the yearly shot-blocker with upside. Payne looks the part of a strong rotation big. McGary too, but he's a banger (while Payne is a lean athlete who can shoot). Nurkic is rising as a big body who's great around the rim. B-

1. Joel Embiid | C | 7’1” 250 | Kansas | 19 | #1 OVR
2. Willie Cauley-Stein | C | 7’0” 250 | Kentucky | 20 | #11 OVR
3. Adreian Payne | C/PF | 6’10” 230 | Michigan State | 22 | #20 OVR
4. Mitch McGary | C/PF | 6’10” 265 | Michigan | 21 | #23 OVR
5. Jusuf Nurkic | C | 6’11” 275 | Bosnia | 19 | #26 OVR

Others: Isaiah Austin [Baylor]

 

Quick Lottery Mock (order by Hollinger's projected records):


#1: Jabari Parker | SF/PF | 6’8” 240 | Duke | 18 | #3 OVR (prospect)
Jabari and Giannis would combine to create one of the most intriguing/versatile F combos in the league.


#2: Andrew Wiggins | SF | 6’8” 205 | Kansas | 18 | #2 OVR
Wiggins would team with MCW and Noel to form a ridiculously athletic young core.


#3: Joel Embiid | C | 7’1” 250 | Kansas | 19 | #1 OVR
The Lakers luck out once again, getting the most promising C prospect in years.


#4: Marcus Smart | PG/SG | 6’4” 225 | Oklahoma State | 19 | #5 OVR
Smart is part PG and part SG, but he's a top prospect either way, and worth taking here.


#5: Dante Exum | SG/PG | 6’6” 185 | Australia | 18 | #6 OVR
Exum could be the star amongst Utah's young guys. He does remind some of a rich man's Burks however.


#6: Julius Randle | PF | 6’9” 250 | Kentucky | 19 | #4 OVR
This would be a great value for Boston, as Randle projects as a 20-10 guy.


#7: Noah Vonleh | PF | 6’10” 240 | Indiana | 18 | #8 OVR
Vonleh is a smart, versatile 4 man who would be a steadying counterpart for Cousins.


#8: Zach LaVine | SG | 6’5” 175 | UCLA | 18 | #7 OVR
I like Waiters' upside, but his fit with Kyrie doesn't make sense. LaVine's off-ball upside does.


#9: Rodney Hood | SF | 6’8” 200 | Duke | 21 | #11 OVR
Detroit needs some wing help and efficient scoring, and Hood brings both.


#10: James Young | SG/SF | 6'6" 210 | Kentucky | 18 | #13 OVR
Charlotte could use some perimeter offense. Young is raw, but could be a big help down the road.

(from DEN)
#11: Willie Cauley-Stein | C | 7’0” 250 | Kentucky | 20 | #10 OVR
Other than a PG, Orlando could use a rim-protector. WCS would be a nice change up from Vucevic.

(from NOP)
#12: Aaron Gordon | PF/SF | 6’8” 220 | Arizona | 18 | #9 OVR
Add Gordon to an Wiggins, MCW and Noel. Yikes.


#13: TJ Warren | SF | 6'8" 235 | NC State | 20 | #15 OVR
Warren might be the most natural scorer in CBB. Memphis needs some offensive help, badly.


#14: Dario Saric | PF | 6'10" 225 | Croatia | 19 | #12 OVR
Dallas could go a number of ways here, but Saric is a good value who could learn from Dirk.

 

It's tough to say, as Exum is playing lower competition and is (by default) initiating the offense, while Smart is forced to play off the ball more than on it at OK State (not unlike Kemba at UConn).

I have Exum as a 2 because of his height and because I think he's a scorer at heart + his handles are not definitely not advanced enough at this juncture to be an NBA 1. I will say that his lack of televised games makes it hard for me to say at this point. That said, there have been countless 6'4"-6'7" foreign guards in the past decade that are hyped as PGs (as they can get away with it in lower-level foreign leagues), but pretty much every one ends up transitioning to the 2 (or even 3) spot...and this plays a role in me projecting him as a 2, for the time being.

Smart on the other hand, has been slotted as a PG for the past year by most, but I've come to see him more as an offense-initiating 2 (ala Harden/Wade). I think he'd be better equipped to guard (and bother) NBA 1s on defense than Exum, but his handles and playmaking ability (see his A/TO) are definitely not NBA-level yet for the 1 spot, either. One guy he does remind me of is a young Kyle Lowry (a much bigger version), as both guys were pedal to the medal bulldogs on both ends, and though neither had much polish, they made up for it through their natural feel of the game. And as Lowry grew into his PG skills, Smart might just do the same. The difference is that Lowry had to do so as a 6'0" player, while Smart might just end up being a better SG than PG, at 6'4" 225.

 

Also, Charlotte would get Detroit's pick in the mock above. Detroit only has it protected for the top-8 picks.

 

Weekly Lottery Mock Update (again, order by Hollinger)


#1: Joel Embiid | C | 7’1” 250 | Kansas | 19 | #1 OVR (prospect)
- Embiid has established himself as the (somewhat) clear #1 prospect. Milwaukee has more interior talent than perimeter talent, but you don't pass up a guy with as much upside as Embiid for fit. Moves can be made after.


#2: Andrew Wiggins | SF | 6’8” 205 | Kansas | 18 | #2 OVR
- Again, Orlando already has some talent on the wings, but there's no reason not to go BPA this high.


#3: Jabari Parker | SF/PF | 6’8” 240 | Duke | 18 | #3 OVR
- Kobe gets his scoring protege in Jabari. He'd be ready to contribute from day-one, which is a bonus considering that the Lakers hope to make another run with Kobe.


#4: Julius Randle | PF | 6’9” 250 | Kentucky | 19 | #4 OVR
- Randle would be the four of the future here, teaming with fellow UK big Noel inside.


#5: Dante Exum | SG/PG | 6’6” 185 | Australia | 18 | #6 OVR
- Still have Exum to Utah. He could be the go-to guy that they lack.


#6: Marcus Smart | PG/SG | 6’4” 225 | Oklahoma State | 19 | #5 OVR
- "But I thought Smart's a PG?!" Well, Smart has played off the ball for much of his college career, and is incredibly versatile (plus he has the size). His intangibles would work well with Kyrie's scoring.


#7: Noah Vonleh | PF | 6’10” 240 | Indiana | 18 | #7 OVR
- Smart, solid young big who would become the apple of Brad Stevens' eye.


#8: Rodney Hood | SF | 6’8” 200 | Duke | 21 | #9 OVR
- Smooth efficient scoring wing for a team without much shooting.

(from DET)
#9: Zach LaVine | SG | 6’5” 175 | UCLA | 18 | #8 OVR
- After going with the established Hood, Charlotte can take a flier on the high-upside LaVine. The two would drastically help an offensively challenged team.


#10: James Young | SG/SF | 6'6" 210 | Kentucky | 18 | #13 OVR
- After grabbing Randle, Philly could use some perimeter help. Young is a smooth scorer with upside, who would work well with MCW.


#11: Willie Cauley-Stein | C | 7’0” 240 | Kentucky | 20 | #9 OVR
- WCS's shot-blocking ability and athleticism would be a great change-up from Cousins' offensive prowess/style of play.

(from DEN)
#12: Jahii Carson | PG | 5'10" 175 | Arizona State | 21 | #23 OVR
- This would be a big reach at this point, but ORL needs a PG for the future, and Carson is the best available. This is about the highest he could go, as I had him out of the 1st in my last full mock.


#13: Jerami Grant | SF/PF | 6'9" 205 | Syracuse | 19 | #15 OVR
- Grant wouldn't help Memphis' scoring woes, but he does have incredible defensive upside, which the Grizz FO always values.


#14: Aaron Gordon | PF/SF | 6’8” 215 | Arizona | 18 | #11 OVR
- Gordon's lack of a defined position knocks him a bit. He still has nice upside, and he'd get to learn from Marion/Dirk.

 

My new Mock Draft:

http://badmenblog.wordpress.com/2014/02/21/2014-nba-mock-draft-everything-you-need-to-know/

Comes with brief scouting reports and team fits.