ESPN Insider: Early West All-Stars

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/10168582/nba-early-leaders-west-all-star-squad


Given the way the Western Conference has dominated the East this season, the only battle more competitive than making the playoffs in the West will be for the coveted 12 spots on the conference's All-Star team. Fifteen of the NBA's top 20 players in my wins above replacement (WARP) rating call the Western Conference home, making cutting down to 12 players difficult enough before accounting for the spot guaranteed to Los Angeles Lakers guard Kobe Bryant, who is the runaway leader in fan voting for the West backcourt despite the time he's missed to injury. (His latest, a fracture of the tibial plateau, is expected to cost him six weeks and could force him to miss the All-Star Game.)

As it turns out, Bryant isn't the only likely starter who doesn't make my team, chosen based on a combination of performance to date and expected production the rest of the season. Let's take a look.

BACKCOURT ALL-STARS

Starters

Paul
Paul
Chris Paul, Los Angeles Clippers

So far this season, Paul has been the best player in the West. He's traded the WARP lead with LeBron James and Kevin Durant, is tops in Basketball-Reference.com's Win Shares and is fourth in PER. With more weapons around him, Paul is averaging a career-high 11.7 assists per 36 minutes and hasn't sacrificed scoring in the process.

Curry
Curry
Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors

The other starting backcourt spot is more challenging, but I'd give the nod to first-time All-Star Curry, who has picked up where he left off during last year's playoffs. Curry has been the best scorer at guard in the league, and he's also handing out 8.7 assists per 36 minutes while handling the ball more after Jarrett Jack's departure. That offsets his problematic turnover rate (4.0 per 36 minutes).

Reserves

Harden
Harden
James Harden, Houston Rockets

Whether because of the sore foot he's been battling, the adjustment to playing alongside Dwight Howard or simply randomness, Harden hasn't been quite as effective in the early going as he was during his first season in Houston. But Harden isn't playing poorly -- at least on offense -- and is still 13th in the league in WARP.

Westbrook
Westbrook
Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder

Based strictly on performance this season, Westbrook might not make a crowded West backcourt. But if ever we're going to look past that, it should be for a perennial All-Star affected by an injury that's unlikely to be a factor going forward. Already, Westbrook's numbers are up across the board in December, when he's averaged 23.1 points (up from 22.2), 8.9 assists (5.9) and 7.7 rebounds (5.0) per 36 minutes.

Parker
Parker
Tony Parker, San Antonio Spurs

Parker's numbers are also off slightly from last season, notably in assists (7.3 per 36 minutes, down from 8.3) and free throw percentage (72.0 percent, down from 84.5). But he remains the driving force behind the NBA's fourth-best offense and a deserving All-Star.

Lillard
Lillard
Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers

If Bryant is back by mid-February, it's going to be difficult for Lillard to unseat his more experienced peers in the West backcourt -- a lesson Curry learned last season. Lillard has done everything in his power to earn a spot. He's third in WARP among West guards, behind only Paul and Curry. The second-year guard is running the league's best offense (Portland is averaging 114.5 points per 100 possessions) and has won multiple games with his clutch shots. Per NBA.com/Stats, Lillard's four field goals to tie or take the lead in the final 30 seconds of games are double anyone else in the NBA.

Names to watch

Bryant
Bryant
Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles Lakers

I can understand fans wanting to see Bryant in the All-Star Game. At this point, however, the Mamba might need the time off as he works his way back from a second major injury.

Lawson
Lawson
Ty Lawson, Denver Nuggets

Lawson leads a group of productive point guards, including Eric Bledsoe and Mike Conley, who simply have no hope of cracking the West backcourt barring injury.

Matthews
Matthews
Wesley Matthews, Portland Trail Blazers

With apologies to Monta Ellis, Manu Ginobili and Klay Thompson, Matthews has been the second-best shooting guard in the West this season. His .645 true shooting percentage ranks third in the NBA. Still, the conference's depth at point guard precludes Matthews for legitimate All-Star consideration.

FRONTCOURT ALL-STARS

Starters

Durant
Durant
Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder

It's testament to the talent in the league that Durant can post a near-carbon copy of his 2012-13 season (statistically, the only difference is a decline in his 2-point percentage from .539 to .510) and not automatically be considered the leading challenger to LeBron James for MVP honors.

Aldridge
Aldridge
LaMarcus Aldridge, Portland Trail Blazers

Aldridge has played his way into the MVP discussion with a dominant first two months. While he's not as efficient a scorer as you think (his .521 true shooting percentage is below average because he rarely gets to the free throw line), Aldridge's versatility is key to the league's best offense and a defense good enough to contend.

Love
Love
Kevin Love, Minnesota Timberwolves

In years past, Blazers fans have used head-to-head matchups to argue Aldridge's superiority to Love. After Love nearly posted a triple-double (29 points, 15 rebounds and nine assists) in Wednesday's win over Portland, the roles have reversed. Fortunately, there's room for both players on the West frontline since we're no longer required to pick a center. Still third in the league in WARP (and tops among Kevins), Love has earned a starting spot.

Reserves

Howard
Howard
Dwight Howard, Houston Rockets

Healthier nearly two years removed from back surgery and on a roster better suited to his skills, Howard has been more effective this season in Houston. He's been more efficient in the post and more dominant on the glass. Plus, his return to form at the free throw line (56.2 percent, after two seasons below 50 percent) has made intentional fouls less viable.

Nowitzki
Nowitzki
Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas Mavericks

After having an 11-year All-Star streak snapped last February, Nowitzki has played his way back on the roster. Save a slightly smaller role in the Dallas offense, Nowitzki has shown few signs of aging and remains one of the league's most accurate shooters, making 51.8 percent of his 2s, 41.9 percent of his 3s and 92.7 percent at the line.

Davis
Davis
Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans

In the context of the outcry over fan voting for Kobe, justifying a spot for another player coming off injury might seem difficult. But Davis, who returned to the Pelicans' lineup Wednesday, missed just seven games. Moreover, Davis has been so good when in the lineup (his 28.3 PER trails only James) that he's still ninth in the league in WARP, which is designed to value durability.

Names to watch

Griffin
Griffin
Blake Griffin, Los Angeles Clippers

Griffin has been down slightly this season, particularly in terms of his 2-point percentage (.548 to .522), but missing out on my frontcourt roster says more about the rest of the West than Griffin's own play. Even if Griffin bounces back, as he likely will, it's not clear he'll be better than the six players ahead of him.

Duncan
Duncan
Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs

After a dreadfully slow start, Duncan has averaged 20.7 points and 15.3 rebounds per 36 minutes in December, so he may yet overtake Nowitzki for the one veteran spot on the roster the two of them have traded off the last two years.

Batum
Batum
Nicolas Batum, Portland Trail Blazers

Like teammate Matthews, Batum is the second-best player in the conference at his position, but the West's superb set of power forwards means Durant will surely be the only small forward on the All-Star team.

Cousins
Cousins
DeMarcus Cousins, Sacramento Kings

By improving his finishing around the basket, Cousins has moved into sixth in the NBA in PER and eighth in WARP. But Cousins' defense hasn't progressed as quickly, and the Kings rank 27th in defensive rating.