Limitations of Moreyball: Analysis of the Rockets Clutch Performances

As the 2013 offseason finally winds down its time to look ahead on what seems like a defining season for this squad. After the FA splash of Reggie Williams (and some guy named Dwight) the Rockets roster finally seems somewhat settled for the time been. So now seemed as good a time as ever to divulge into what all of CF’s have loved ‘Moreyball’. I am a firm believer in this strategic planning and think Morey was ahead of this time when it came to how to build a roster however, I found that there are limitations to this strategy. In this article I look at the absence of chasing Clutch peformers by Morey and his super team, and find out if our players are Clutch or not.
Just to clear up, I am writing this to provide a new topic on CF’s that I haven’t seen not to look like a hater, which lead me to write this. If this article is a success I intend to make more articles which utilize advanced stats or if not then ill just research the data for my own personal use.

Now before we start here is a clip from the Sloan MIT which Morey himself admits his doesn’t pay players based on clutch performances. Go to 1:00:25 when Morey was posed the theory of Clutch performances. It’s interesting to here Cuban has a completely different philosophy compared to Morey (unable to embed the vid from this website sorry)
http://www.sloansportsconference.com/?p=712


Clutch Shooting from the data I collected for this article was described as shooting within the final 5 minutes of games when the game was within 5 points.

The 2012-2013 Rockets Clutch Performances by the Numbers

The Bearded one

Most Likely, a close game in the 4th game came down to one man, Harden (not the worst person to have mind you), that’s why I have dedicated a section related just to the Beard, by the raw numbers to a everyday fan Harden actually looks like a player that should be labelled ‘Clutch’ coming in 7th overall in ppc (average points in the clutch) at 3.1 compared to the stat leader CP3 at 4.8. Not bad right,
(NOTE: Regular season total shots attempted by zone on the left and total clutch shots attempted by zone under 5 minutes within 5 points is on the right)
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If you divulge into how and where he took his shots you can begin to see how James actually was slightly an ‘inconsistent closer’ based off league averages only. Advanced stats back this up as well. During the entire 2013-2013 NBA season Harden ranked 3rd in True Shooting in players who scored more than 15 points per game, compared to in the clutch Harden ranked surprisingly 3rd among the rockets starters dropping slightly from 60% to 58.3%. It’s not a huge drop off, however from February on, Harden did show improvement in his effectiveness with his shooting in the clutch whether that was through chemistry or something else, it should make every rockets fan jump for joy.


Who’s more Clutch based off the numbers: Chandler vs. Lin.

Chandler Parsons

Here’s were it gets interesting, you have our 2nd and 3rd offensive producers last year.
When I think of CP25 in the clutch over the past 2 seasons, 2 moments come to mind
1. The Dallas buzzer beater
2. The Lakers line drive
both sending each game to OT and with huge Pressure

Spoiler

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But can you think of when Parsons made a slashing drive when the game was on the line? CP25’s shot chart backs up his Novak status in the clutch.

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Thats right, Chandler shot 44.5% of his total shots in the paint during the regular season, compared to 0% in Clutch Time.The numbers don’t lie Parsons rose from a .385 3 point shooter to 46.67% from deep, however due to parsons only averaging 3.2 minutes and taking only 15 shots for the season it highlights that it is an extremely small sample size.

Jeremy Lin

Here’s were things get interesting, Lin was criticised at times last year due to his lack of the clutch gene such as the Miami air ball incident.

Spoiler

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Nevertheless analysing Lin’s shot chart is staggering to me
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Lin is the only rocket to increase in Morey’s 3 most important scoring options when the game is on the line: paint scoring%, 3% and ft% all increased
The stats continue to stagger me as his true shooting % is a staggering 64.9% which had him ranked 17th in the league amongst players who qualified in my data, but like Parsons a small sample size shouldn’t be taken so concrete (on a side note CP3 just beat Lin posting a true shooting of 66.5 was ranked 16th in clutch time however his attempts per clutch were much higher obviously). Lastly on lin, he averaged an astonishing 50% on threes in the clutch, how exactly im not sure as 50% for anyone in the clutch is a remarkable stat.


As not a LOF or a LOH nevertheless, advanced stats show Lin seems to come out on top as the Clutch shooter on the stats alone, however in saying that if you need a bucket with under 5 seconds on the clock and harden isn’t open, then Parsons on the perimeter seems like amore reliable target with his record as a Rocket and Gator.


The Entire Rockets Team

The 2012-2013 Rockets were a middle of the pack “Clutch Team” coming in 16th in both win% and FG% in the last 5 minutes of a game within 5 points, which to me is extremely positive for what was the leagues youngest team. Historically what I found is that a youngest team will rank in the bottom tier of Close out games. So get excited CF’s.
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Now expanding that shot chart into our top 5 minutes played line-ups played in Clutch time and sorting it by offensive rating.

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Floor Spacing, dominates all 5 of our most utilized in the clutch with atleast 4 shooters on the court at all times with the usual suspects Harden, Parsons and Lin featuring in all the closing units (surprising no Bev or Douglas even) the surprise here was the high offence rating for all 5 line-ups.

One interesting player who goes under the radar off the stats is Greg Smith. I have fallen in the trap myself of suggesting the Rockets try to scrape a measly 2nd rounder for Smith this offseason in saying that, Greg posted a offensive rating of 123.9 in the Clutch (perhaps skewed due to the Laker game where he dropped 21). Greg’s numbers are remarkable and would most defiantly one of Morey’s statistical favourites


The Dwight Effect


This was my hardest challenge. How do you analysis the offensive clutch ability of not just someone coming off an injury interrupted season, but he’s a centre, and due to his woeful FT% makes giving Dwight touches in crunch time a low percentage play for coaches to call.

Dwight still managed to keep his high standards of FG% at 66.7 however he was only able to average 1.1 ppc that disappointingly was less than his free throws attempted per clutch of 1.2.

Although, in contrast Dwight’s 2010-2011 season saw his FG% at 71.9 averaging 2.0 ppc and shoot free throws at an impressive 59.6. (This is what I expect Dwight to return as his Orlando years all reflect these stats in contrast to the Laker nightmare)

Dwight is more likely to show up in the clutch in on defence and this clip (which I have watched at least 20 times since early July) shows he has the potential go to work on both ends.

Spoiler

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Final Words


Funnily enough this was a mission I made since I heard Morey make this statement in 2010, since he disregards overpaying people who are proven in the crunch time, the question I wanted to know was, are our rockets even clutch? After collecting the data necessary I feel a lot safer on the offensive end when the game comes down to it. When you add the best centre in the game along with another year of experience, It makes me look forward to recreating this article to see the improvements in 12 months time.


This is my first real thread on CF’s i have really set my mind to and first essay style analytical approach to the NBA, and hope you guys enjoyed it. Whether you did or you didn’t I would love to here feedback in the comments on how I can get superior in certain parts or sections I was alight at,

Shutout to J.R. and GIGO for posting help, sc1211 for his article http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showthread.php?t=242380 which gave me the motivation to do this and is a great read, as well as Clutch for the opportunity to talk to all of you whether we agree or disagree on this forum

It’s a good time to be a Rockets supporter, let this picture sink in​

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yeah i knew this would come up. i started doing editing of game tape to show how teams sag of lin onto harden and the paint, but it was raking ay to long to watch so many games.

but i understand what you mean most defiantly, i took a basic approach and looked just off the numbers.

maybe in the future ill get around to editing the second half of the seasons clutch games to show this coaching ploy on Lin, Parsons and Harden

 

if more people like yourself voice your pleasure then i already have another article which i started yesterday on another limitation of Moreyball

 

Thanks for the kind words, have you watched the video i posted from the sloan conf. This is one of the only things i don't entirely agree with Morey on and side somewhat with Cuban on. having guys with high IQ tend to translate to strong clutch guys after doing all this research.

if you look at the current champions, both battier and allen (who i perceive with high IQ's) rated high in the role player section of clutch performers.

 

your the one guy on Clutchfans who makes me crap myself when i see you have commented on something i have wrote, just hoping your not hating on me.

thank you for the kind words, instalment 2 is on the way

 

if you are interested, the video from start to finish is a great watch, even if it was made in 2010. smarter players tend to be vets aswell, and since we had the leagues youngest team last year, and IMO morey since the breakup of yao/tmac would rather acquire assets in younger players compared to sign vets however, times are changing thanks to d12 and the beard

 

as i said above, im kinda new to this hole analyising nerd stats, i have been editing rockets clutch moments and adding in captions to show how difficult each shot was however, it was very time consuming and i really wanted to just submit an article to CF's.

in the future ill will add what you desire.

maybe when i get the editing feature and chuck some money in the tipjar

 

thanks, it does not seem like work when i love doing this.


i was never good at essay writing at school as i was more on the math side, so i apologise for poor grammar however, the second instalment has already been started

 

this was also part of the videoi was editing. i may make it public on youtube when i finihs and it discusses that the smarter defensive teams use similar schemes against the Rockets and my hope for the video was to show like a freeze frame and then a few what ifs.

eg: what if he takes the off balanced 4
what is lin gets an open 3
what if parsons gets a 3 with a semi closout


its a cool idea, just a lot of work, however i love it