[Insider] Race for 8th

Welcome to the playoffs for the playoffs.

The Eastern Conference playoff field has been locked up for weeks, but we can't say the same out West. It's been a competitive four-team race for the eighth and final spot on the Western Conference postseason roster, but we can safely remove the Portland Trail Blazers from that Final Four after they lost to the Utah Jazz on Monday night, their fifth straight L, dropping them to 33-41.

That leaves the Dallas Mavericks, Los Angeles Lakers and Jazz to duke it out for the lone vacant seat at the table. Fans of the Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets may want to keep their Sharpies locked away for now, but they can pencil in their spot in the field, as Hollinger's Playoff Odds give those two teams each greater than 98 percent odds to punch their ticket.

Who owns the tiebreakers? Who has the easiest schedule? Is Dwight Howard delusional about his bold prediction? For more on how Hollinger's Playoff Odds work, feel free to check out this page, but we're going to need to go deeper into the numbers to figure out which team -- Mavericks, Lakers or Jazz -- will likely be the last team standing.

How the Jazz make the playoffs
Record: 39-36
Playoff Odds: 56 percent
Games remaining: 7 (4H/3A)
Remaining SOS: .535

Guess what: The standings are lying to you. It may seem like the Jazz have a half-game lead in the standings over the Lakers and a two-game lead over the Mavs, but you should add an extra game to those cushions. Why? Tiebreakers. In the event of a tie, the league rules stipulate that the team with the better head-to-head record in the regular season wins out. In this case, the Jazz have taken two of the three games against both the Lakers and the Mavs this season. Additionally, the Jazz would survive in the event of a three-way tie.

So, good news for those in Salt Lake City: The Jazz have the inside track to the playoffs, and the Playoff Odds bear this out. In reality, the tiebreakers effectively give the Jazz a 1.5-game cushion over the Lakers and a three-game lead over the Mavs. The bad news? Even with the head start and a current five-game win streak, the Jazz still have their work cut out for them.

Look at the seven remaining games on the Jazz's schedule. They still have to play the Warriors, the Denver Nuggets, the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Memphis Grizzlies from here on out, and only two of those games are at home (Warriors and Nuggets). Utah's record against those teams? 4-7. The tiebreakers may give the Jazz the inside track, but they'll need to go 5-2 or better the rest of the way to feel safe against the Lakers. Think of it this way: the Jazz essentially have a 2-on-1 fast break, but Jamaal Tinsley and Earl Watson are running it.

How the Lakers make the playoffs
Record: 38-36
Playoff Odds: 40.6 percent
Games remaining: 8 (6H/2A)
Remaining SOS: .561

Howard made headlines recently by opening his mouth (shocking, I know) and delivering a pseudo-prediction that the Lakers "should" win the next eight games to finish the season. Good luck with that. Not helping matters is that Steve Nash is battling issues with his hips and right hamstring, a condition which doctors have diagnosed as "being a 39-year-old NBA player," and remains a game-time decision for Tuesday night's game against one of his former teams, the Mavericks.

The Nash injury is not a death knell for the Lakers, however. Interestingly enough, the Lakers have done better without Nash this season. According to NBA.com/stats, the Lakers have outscored opponents by 1.4 points per 100 possessions this season with Nash on the court, but that lead widens to 2.0 points every 100 possessions with him on the bench, thanks to a better defensive output. According to the scoreboard, Metta World Peace's season-ending knee surgery may be the bigger deal; World Peace had the best net rating of any Lakers player this season (plus-9.1).

It may not calm nerves in LakerLand that the Lakers' postseason fate probably rests in the hands of Steve Blake and Jodie Meeks, who has replaced World Peace in the starting lineup. Throw in the fact that Kobe Bryant has been limited with a bone spur in his right heel, and the Lakers look like damaged goods as they limp to the finish line. With six of their next eight games against teams in the playoff picture (Mavericks included), the odds are stacked against them. Better hope opponents rest their stars down the stretch, because anything less than a 6-2 record the rest of the way likely won't cut it.

How the Mavericks make the playoffs
Record: 36-37
Playoff Odds: 6.0 percent
Games remaining: 9 (4H/5A)
Remaining SOS: .485

It's pretty much do-or-die for the Mavs on Tuesday against the Lakers, and the Staples Center playoff atmosphere will be fitting. The Mavericks' playoff hopes are on life support and Dirk Nowitzki and Co. need to win Tuesday's game in order to have any shot of getting that final ticket.

Here's the uphill climb for the Mavericks: They need to win Tuesday's game and likely need to go 7-1 or better the rest of the way, and then pray that the Jazz collapse down the stretch. Some tiebreaker info: A win over the Lakers would put the head-to-head games at two wins apiece for the first tiebreaker, which would then go to the best Western Conference record for the second tiebreaker (assuming the Jazz fall apart). Even though a Tuesday victory would tie the Lakers in the overall standings, the Mavericks would still trail the Lakers by a half-game in the West. That's the kicker.

Dallas' upcoming schedule ain't helping. Five of its remaining nine games are on the road, with two back-to-backs (more than the Jazz and Lakers combined). It'll help that the average opponent is a below-.500 team, because the Mavericks will need to run the table (or something close to it) the rest of the way. More last-second heroics from Nowitzki, basically.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/page/PerDiem-130402/nba-race-eighth-western-conference