Some Free Agency Scenarios, Illustrated with Tables

A few response to some of the thoughts posted in here:

1. Regarding Lopez: Not sure if he's the answer talent-wise. Besides, I'm pretty sure the Nets will have to match any non-stupid contract on the guy. I don't think I'd throw close to the max on him ($12-14.5 million). Something significantly less (like $8-10 million) then we'll probably have an automatic match. After all, DeAndre Jordan got 4 years $43 million and the Clippers matched it.

1. Regarding Asik: I get the point about him not being "proven" in big minutes and that almost $10 mil a year on the guy is a risk. On the other hand, if he just keeps up his current level of play (elite rebounder and defender) and do it in, say, 25 mpg, $9-10 million probably looks more than fair. Again, I'd compare this situation to DeAndre Jordan, who was a "no brainer match" at $10.75 mil/year for the Clippers last season. Jordan is a better finisher around the rim, but is not nearly as good a defender in my opinion. If Osik does what he does now for 35 mpg, he's be an absolute bargain at that price.

That said, the $9.974 million scenario was just the "ceiling" of what an outside team can pay Asik. Perhaps a lower offer will get it done, so here is what the team can do if they are to offer him $8.16 mil a year (i.e. their available cap room without making any significant moves):

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<table class="tableizer-table">
<tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th> Name </th><th> Notes </th><th> 2011-12 </th><th> 2012-13 </th><th> 2013-14 </th><th>2014-15</th><th>2015-16</th><th>&nbsp;</th><th>&nbsp;</th></tr> <tr><td> Kevin Martin </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td> $11,519,840 </td><td> $12,439,675 </td><td> </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td> Luis Scola </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td> $8,591,793 </td><td> $9,408,207 </td><td> $10,224,622 </td><td>$11,041,037 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td> Samuel Dalembert </td><td> Waived </td><td> $7,000,000 </td><td> $1,500,000 </td><td> </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td> Kyle Lowry </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td> $5,750,000 </td><td> $5,750,000 </td><td> $6,210,000 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td> Courtney Lee </td><td> Cap Hold </td><td> $2,225,093 </td><td> $5,560,000 </td><td> </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td> Goran Dragic </td><td> Cap Hold </td><td> $2,108,000 </td><td> $4,010,000 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td> Patrick Patterson </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td> $1,959,960 </td><td> $2,096,760 </td><td> $3,105,302 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td> Marcus Morris </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td> $1,823,280 </td><td> $1,905,360 </td><td> $1,987,320 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td> Chase Budinger </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td> $854,389 </td><td> $885,120 </td><td> </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td> Chandler Parsons </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td> $850,000 </td><td> $888,250 </td><td> $926,500 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td> Greg Smith </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td> $473,604 </td><td> $762,195 </td><td> $854,389 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td> Derek Fisher </td><td> Waived </td><td> $3,400,000 </td><td> $644,005 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Courtney Fortson</td><td>Waived</td><td> $473,604 </td><td> $- </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Diamon Simpson</td><td>Waived</td><td> $473,604 </td><td> $- </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Marcus Camby</td><td>Renounced</td><td> $11,071,500 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Earl Boykins</td><td>Renounced</td><td> $762,195 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>SUM</td><td>Average</td></tr> <tr><td>Omer Asik </td><td>RFA-Cap Hit</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td> $8,165,328 </td><td> $8,165,328 </td><td> $8,165,328 </td><td> $8,165,328 </td><td> $32,661,312 </td><td> $8,165,328 </td></tr> <tr><td>Omer Asik</td><td>RFA-Actual</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td> $5,000,000 </td><td> $5,225,000 </td><td> $10,971,302 </td><td> $11,465,010 </td><td> </td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>14th Pick</td><td>Cap Hold</td><td> </td><td> $1,519,400 </td><td> $1,905,360 </td><td> $1,987,320 </td><td> $2,943,221 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>16th Pick </td><td>Cap Hold</td><td> </td><td> $1,371,200 </td><td> $1,719,480 </td><td> $1,793,520 </td><td> $2,751,260 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Donatas Motiejunas </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td> $1,134,500 </td><td> $1,422,720 </td><td> $1,483,920 </td><td> $2,288,205 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>SUM</td><td>Add Lee/Dragic</td><td> $59,336,862 </td><td> $58,040,000 </td><td> $36,521,021 </td><td> $24,471,125 </td><td> $16,148,014 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td># of Players</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>15</td><td>14</td><td>10</td><td>5</td><td>4</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>$ below $58.04 mil Cap</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td> $(1,296,862)</td><td> $- </td><td> $21,518,979 </td><td> $33,568,875 </td><td> $41,891,986 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td></td></tr></table>

3. Also about Asik: I decided to look at the Chicago Bulls cap situation in a little more detail. Aside from Asik being a free agent, several of their players are on non-guaranteed contracts next season: Korver ($500K guaranteed), Watson and Brewer. If they bring all 3 of them back and match an outside max offer to Asik, below is what their salary picture looks like.

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<table class="tableizer-table">
<tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th></th><th>&nbsp;</th><th>&nbsp;</th><th>&nbsp;</th><th>&nbsp;</th><th>&nbsp;</th><th>&nbsp;</th><th>&nbsp;</th></tr> <tr><td> Name </td><td> Notes </td><td> 2011-12 </td><td> 2012-13 </td><td> 2013-14 </td><td>2014-15</td><td>2015-16</td><td>2016/2017</td></tr> <tr><td>Carlos Boozer</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$13,500,000 </td><td>$15,000,000 </td><td>$15,300,000 </td><td>$16,800,000 </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Luol Deng</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$12,325,000 </td><td>$13,365,000 </td><td>$14,275,000 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Joakim Noah</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$12,000,000 </td><td>$11,300,000 </td><td>$11,100,000 </td><td>$12,200,000 </td><td>$13,400,000 </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Derrick Rose</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$6,993,708 </td><td>$15,506,632 </td><td>$16,669,629 </td><td>$17,832,627 </td><td>$18,995,624 </td><td>$20,158,622 </td></tr> <tr><td>Richard Hamilton</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$5,000,000 </td><td>$5,000,000 </td><td>$5,000,000 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Kyle Korver</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$5,000,000 </td><td>$5,000,000 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Ronnie Brewer</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$4,710,000 </td><td>$4,370,000 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>C.J. Watson</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$3,400,000 </td><td>$3,200,000 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Omer Asik</td><td>Matching Offer</td><td>$1,857,500 </td><td>$5,000,000 </td><td>$5,225,000.000 </td><td> $14,510,000 </td><td> $15,162,950 </td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Taj Gibson</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$1,195,680 </td><td>$2,155,811 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Jimmy Butler</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$1,020,960 </td><td>$1,066,920 </td><td>$1,112,880 </td><td>$2,008,748 </td><td>$14,510,000 </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>John Lucas III</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$915,852 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Brian Scalabrine</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$854,389 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>29th Pick</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$942,700 </td><td>$1,074,720 </td><td>$1,120,920 </td><td>$2,023,261 </td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>SUM</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$68,773,089 </td><td>$81,907,063 </td><td>$69,757,229 </td><td>$64,472,295 </td><td>$64,091,835 </td><td>$20,158,622 </td></tr> <tr><td># of Players</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>13</td><td>12</td><td>8</td><td>6</td><td>5</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>$ below $58.04 mil Cap</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>($10,733,089)</td><td>($23,867,063)</td><td>($11,717,229)</td><td>($6,432,295)</td><td>($6,051,835)</td><td>$37,881,378 </td></tr></table>

It should be noted that, under NBA Rules, Asik's cap impact for the Bulls will be $5,000,000, and $5.225 mil for the next 2 years rather than the average salary for the life of the contract as long as the outside offer is more than the MLE. So, the math for the next 2 seasons would be the same whether they match a $9.974 mil/year offer or a $8.16 mi/year offer or even a $7 mil/year offer.

In any case, the Bulls would be well over any likely tax threshold (currently $70.3 mil) no matter what.


Here's what happens if they are to waive all 3 of Watson, Korver and Brewer:

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<table class="tableizer-table">
<tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th> Name </th><th> Notes </th><th> 2011-12 </th><th> 2012-13 </th><th> 2013-14 </th><th>2014-15</th><th>2015-16</th><th>2016/2017</th></tr> <tr><td>Carlos Boozer</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$13,500,000 </td><td>$15,000,000 </td><td>$15,300,000 </td><td>$16,800,000 </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Luol Deng</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$12,325,000 </td><td>$13,365,000 </td><td>$14,275,000 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Joakim Noah</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$12,000,000 </td><td>$11,300,000 </td><td>$11,100,000 </td><td>$12,200,000 </td><td>$13,400,000 </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Derrick Rose</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$6,993,708 </td><td>$15,506,632 </td><td>$16,669,629 </td><td>$17,832,627 </td><td>$18,995,624 </td><td>$20,158,622 </td></tr> <tr><td>Richard Hamilton</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$5,000,000 </td><td>$5,000,000 </td><td>$5,000,000 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Kyle Korver</td><td>Waived</td><td>$5,000,000 </td><td>$500,000 </td><td> </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Ronnie Brewer</td><td>Waived</td><td>$4,710,000 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>C.J. Watson</td><td>Waived</td><td>$3,400,000 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Omer Asik</td><td>Matching Offer</td><td>$1,857,500 </td><td>$5,000,000 </td><td>$5,225,000.000 </td><td> $14,510,000 </td><td> $15,162,950 </td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Taj Gibson</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$1,195,680 </td><td>$2,155,811 </td><td>$3,181,977 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Jimmy Butler</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$1,020,960 </td><td>$1,066,920 </td><td>$1,112,880 </td><td>$2,008,748 </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>John Lucas III</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$915,852 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Brian Scalabrine</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$854,389 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>29th Pick</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$942,700 </td><td>$1,074,720 </td><td>$1,120,920 </td><td>$2,023,261 </td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>SUM</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$68,773,089 </td><td>$69,837,063 </td><td>$72,939,206 </td><td>$64,472,295 </td><td>$49,581,835 </td><td>$20,158,622 </td></tr> <tr><td># of Players</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>13</td><td>9</td><td>9</td><td>6</td><td>4</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>$ below $58.04 mil Cap</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>($10,733,089)</td><td>($11,797,063)</td><td>($14,899,206)</td><td>($6,432,295)</td><td>$8,458,165 </td><td>$37,881,378 </td></tr></table>

They'd still likely exceed the tax threshold if they match an Asik offer. The team salary would be at $69.8 million on just 9 players. And they's have to replace 3 rotation guys, including (1) their best shooter, and (2) their #2 PG when D. Rose will be working his way back from ACL surgery and Lucas is also hitting free agency.

With the increased salary on their other players next season, their salary will also most likely exceed the tax threshhold.



4. Of course, one thing the Bulls still have is the amnesty clause. The natural candidate for this, if there is one, is probably Boozer.

Here's what it would look like if they get really aggressive on salary cutting and waive Korver, Watson and Brewer on top of amnestying Boozer.

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<table class="tableizer-table">
<tr class="tableizer-firstrow"><th> Name </th><th> Notes </th><th> 2011-12 </th><th> 2012-13 </th><th> 2013-14 </th><th>2014-15</th><th>2015-16</th><th>2016/2017</th></tr> <tr><td>Carlos Boozer</td><td>Amnestied</td><td>$13,500,000 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Luol Deng</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$12,325,000 </td><td>$13,365,000 </td><td>$14,275,000 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Joakim Noah</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$12,000,000 </td><td>$11,300,000 </td><td>$11,100,000 </td><td>$12,200,000 </td><td>$13,400,000 </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>Derrick Rose</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$6,993,708 </td><td>$15,506,632 </td><td>$16,669,629 </td><td>$17,832,627 </td><td>$18,995,624 </td><td>$20,158,622 </td></tr> <tr><td>Richard Hamilton</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$5,000,000 </td><td>$5,000,000 </td><td>$5,000,000 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Kyle Korver</td><td>Waived</td><td>$5,000,000 </td><td>$500,000 </td><td> </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Ronnie Brewer</td><td>Waived</td><td>$4,710,000 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>C.J. Watson</td><td>Waived</td><td>$3,400,000 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Omer Asik</td><td> </td><td>$1,857,500 </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Taj Gibson</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$1,195,680 </td><td>$2,155,811 </td><td>$3,181,977 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Jimmy Butler</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$1,020,960 </td><td>$1,066,920 </td><td>$1,112,880 </td><td>$2,008,748 </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr> <tr><td>John Lucas III</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$915,852 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>Brian Scalabrine</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$854,389 </td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>29th Pick</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$942,700 </td><td>$1,074,720 </td><td>$1,120,920 </td><td>$2,023,261 </td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>&nbsp;</td></tr> <tr><td>SUM</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>$68,773,089 </td><td>$49,837,063 </td><td>$52,414,206 </td><td>$33,162,295 </td><td>$34,418,885 </td><td>$20,158,622 </td></tr> <tr><td># of Players</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>13</td><td>8</td><td>7</td><td>4</td><td>3</td><td>1</td></tr> <tr><td>$ below $58.04 mil Cap</td><td>&nbsp;</td><td>($10,733,089)</td><td>$8,202,937 </td><td>$5,625,794 </td><td>$24,877,705 </td><td>$23,621,115 </td><td>$37,881,378 </td></tr></table>

This most likely takes them below the tax level, but with a roster that cost almost $50 million on just 8 guys not accounting for Asik, they won't have any meaningful cap room and will have to replace all 4 of the guys they let go. They also most likely won't have any salary cap in the following year, either.

And remember, just because you amnesty a guy and take him off your salary cap, you still have to pay him.

In any case, there Bulls are not in a happy place salary wise and this is why a significant offer to Asik will force the Bulls to make some interesting choices.

 

BimaThug,

First, thanks for the comments. Glad to see that my thinking and numbers are not way off-base from someone who knows.

Second, regarding spreadsheets: I personally find them a good way to help a reader understand this kind of information but know how others may prefer the narrative form when reading or presenting info. Having studied and taught math before entering the legal field, I have mostly dealt with colleagues (and opposing counsel) who are more oriented toward the verbal/narrative form than toward the visual/numerical form. Just kind of interesting how it works.

Third, I agree with you that there will likely be trades and moves to either increase or decrease total salary going into July. Just thought it's useful to point out where things stand now to illustrate the "opportunity cost" of making such moves. For example, if the Rockets want to have more than $8.16 million in cap space, they'll have to renounce their FAs and/or give up players or draft picks in order to get there.

On the other hand, if they elect to take on significant salary in a trade, presumably for established talent or for a draft pick, they'll end up losing a chance of making the kind of free agency moves listed in the OP (and later posts by myself and others). For example, if the Rockets can get Dwight Howard, they would probably gladly say "screw it" to cap space. However, let say that Detroit offers the 9th pick if the Rockets would just take on Charlie Villanueva's contract (by trading Sammy D's expiring/partially guaranteed deal to them), I'd have to think about what FAs I might be losing out on pursuing when I make the deal.


Anyhow, I am looking forward to the Rockets offseason moves and your upcoming updates in response to them.

Edit: One more thing--- What to do with Marcus Camby (and to an certain extent Sam Dalembert) given the salary situation? If you want to bring Camby back, you'll have to either (a) give up on the dream of having cap space, (b) convince him to take the $2.5 million "room exception" or (c) clear some other salary off the books (by way of trades or by burning the amnesty clause) in order to retain him and have cap space. Kind of a similar decision on Dalembert: The cost of retaining him (though you don't need to sign him long term, just pick up the 1-year option) is either giving up on having cap room or having to burn other assets (trading away players/picks, using up the amnesty) in order to clear cap space elsewhere.