Espn in. Tom Haberstroh Potential postseason crashers

Tony Stark · Mar 30, 2012

just read this on espn........looks like someone doesn't know how to read the standings

We know that we'll be watching the first round of the NBA playoffs a month from now, but we don't know who we'll be watching. The Eastern Conference playoff field is all but locked in, with the exception of the eighth seed. That last spot is still very much up for grabs. The New York Knicks, thanks to their impressive run under new head coach Mike Woodson, are keeping that seat warm right now with a 26-25 record and 2½-game lead on the Milwaukee Bucks.

Then we get into the wild, wild West. Just how wild is it? Consider that only 1½ games separate five teams. The Memphis Grizzlies, Dallas Mavericks, Utah Jazz, Denver Nuggets and Houston Rockets are all jostling for playoff positioning. If the season ended today, the Nuggets would be on the outside looking in, but the race is so close that the Mavericks or Grizzlies could easily be one of those teams left out in the cold.

Looking over at John Hollinger's playoff odds, we find that those teams that are in the exclusive top eight right now shouldn't book their playoff hotels quite yet. Here are the best candidates to steal a spot in the playoffs, starting with the Eastern Conference sleeper.

Milwaukee Bucks, 23-27
Playoff odds: 38.5 percent
Remaining SOS: .435 | Post-deadline W-L: 4-3 | Home-Away: 10-6
The Favorite: 26-25 Knicks, 77.1 percent odds

Get ready Knicks fans, because this one's far from over. The homestretch for the Bucks is just that: a "home" stretch. With Ekpe Udoh and Monta Ellis in the fold, the Bucks have just six games on the road, and four of those games come against East featherweights Washington Wizards (twice), Cleveland Cavaliers and Detroit Pistons. Even better, one of their back-to-backs is against the Portland Trail Blazers, who have been in free fall for weeks now.

The Bucks will be armed with the easiest remaining schedule in the league and they'll need every edge they can get while chasing the suddenly hot Knicks, who are 8-1 under Mike Woodson. Now that plus/minus extraordinaire Udoh has entered the starting lineup, expect the Bucks to keep pace with the Knicks.

Circle April 11 on your calendars, because that day's Knicks-Bucks matchup could decide who goes to the playoffs and who gets a head start on their summer golf game. The Bucks, with the league's seventh-highest offensive efficiency since the trade deadline, are just getting started.

Minnesota Timberwolves, 23-27
Playoff odds: 31.6 percent
Remaining SOS: .490 | Post-deadline W-L: 3-5 | Home-Away: 8-6
The Favorites: 27-24 Jazz, 71.6 percent odds; 27-24 Nuggets, 52.6 percent odds

Remember when Ricky Rubio went down and everyone wrote off the Timberwolves quicker than you can say Kevin Love? Yeah, everyone was onto something. Minnesota has indeed struggled mightily since losing their rookie phenom, dropping eight of their last 12 games.

Love has been a monster, averaging 30.5 points and 14.3 rebounds in his absence. But Love can only do so much. Hollinger's playoff odds can't capture the Rubio injury in its projection, so Minnesota's odds might be a little inflated. What they can hang their hats on is the fact that they have some extra control of their situation: They get two games against the Nuggets and they play at home against the Suns and Grizzlies. But of the three West teams on the outside looking in, the Timberwolves might have the least chance of squeezing their way in.

Phoenix Suns, 25-26
Playoff odds: 20.6 percent
Remaining SOS: .542 | Post-deadline W-L: 4-4 | Home-Away: 7-8
The Favorites: Jazz, Nuggets

You cannot count out a team in the hunt that is led by a guy named Stephen John Nash. Especially when it might be his last real shot at the playoffs -- at least in Phoenix. Now, the Suns' most recent 11-3 run was artificially boosted by a Charmin-soft schedule that had them play all but two games in front of their home crowd. They're starting to see the ugly other side of that slate; their remaining strength of schedule is the league's second toughest at .542, or roughly the equivalent of playing the Mavericks every night.

Making matters worse is that they just lost Grant Hill to a knee injury that could sideline him for the season. That's pretty much a knockout punch considering that the Suns play 10.6 points per 100 possessions worse with Hill off the floor. The Suns will need Michael Redd to step up and be the Michael Redd of five seasons ago. The Phoenix training staff might be able to work minor miracles, but it doesn't have a time machine.

Houston Rockets, 23-27
Playoff odds: 49.7 percent
Remaining SOS: .511 | Post-deadline W-L: 3-4 | Home-Away: 7-8
The Favorites: Jazz, Nuggets

The Hollinger playoff odds put the Rockets just outside the playoffs (at least as of Friday), but it might as well be a coin flip between Houston and the Nuggets (who have a 52.6 percent chance of making it). The Nuggets are in trouble. They have only gone 13-17 since February began and they won't have Danilo Gallinari or Rudy Fernandez for the stretch run.

While it's true that the Rockets might be without their stud point guard Kyle Lowry (infection) and Kevin Martin (shoulder) for the foreseeable future, they do have Goran Dragic, one of the league's most underrated players, filling in brilliantly. Let this marinate: The Rockets' new starting lineup with Dragic and Courtney Lee has outscored opponents by plus-16.2 points every 48 minutes while on the floor this season. If they keep that up, punch the Rockets their first playoff ticket since 2008-09, even though they've somehow been a winning team ever since losing Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming.
Click to expand...

Tony Stark · Mar 30, 2012

link : http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/stor...-timberwolves-suns-rockets-sneak-playoffs-nba

Rockets0515 · Mar 30, 2012

So basically we are awesome

LCII · Mar 30, 2012

Yeah, ESPN has some serious quality control issues sometimes.

JMAD21 · Mar 30, 2012

So we're 23-27 huh? Lol

CCorn · Mar 30, 2012

Morey hacked into the records to force a tank!

DaDakota · Mar 30, 2012

Dragic and Lee +16.2 points per 48 minutes, goodbye Lowry and Martin !

DD

Carl Herrera · Mar 30, 2012

DaDakota said: ↑

Dragic and Lee +16.2 points per 48 minutes, goodbye Lowry and Martin !

DD
Click to expand...

Amazing what happens when one combines small sample sizes and small minds.

entirelydave · Mar 30, 2012

DaDakota said: ↑

Dragic and Lee +16.2 points per 48 minutes, goodbye Lowry and Martin !

DD
Click to expand...

Aka knee jerk.

inishi · Mar 30, 2012

Yeah, you also have to remember that they have been going against nothing but ****ing garbage teams................

cod · Mar 30, 2012

Last week on David Locke's (Jazz's radio guy) podcast he had Kevin Pelton on as a guest.

Pelton mentioned another writer from the BasketballProspectus.com who ran the numbers with the new lineups for playoff projections. He had the Rockets finishing ahead of the Jazz and possibly tying their record with the Mavs.

http://weareutahjazz.com/lockedonja...in-pelton-does-high-assist-rate-lead-to-wins/

heypartner · Mar 30, 2012

Why do stupid comments get quoted more than smart ones?

jank1434 · Mar 30, 2012

heypartner said: ↑

Why do stupid comments get quoted more than smart ones?
Click to expand...

What do you mean? :grin:

Rockets2K · Mar 30, 2012

jank1434 said: ↑

What do you mean? :grin:
Click to expand...

he's looking for folks to answer smart posts to enhance actual discussion rather than endless posts making fun of stupid ones

mattrbowers · Mar 30, 2012

JMAD21 said: ↑

So we're 23-27 huh? Lol
Click to expand...

And "somehow playing winning basketball ..."

mattrbowers · Mar 30, 2012

inishi said: ↑

Yeah, you also have to remember that they have been going against nothing but ****ing garbage teams................
Click to expand...

Yep ... Like the Thunder, and the Lakers ....

inishi · Mar 30, 2012

Or Dallas twice

jopatmc · Mar 30, 2012

Let this marinate: The Rockets' new starting lineup with Dragic and Courtney Lee has outscored opponents by plus-16.2 points every 48 minutes while on the floor this season.

That's outstanding, I don't care how you slice it.

flamingdts · Mar 30, 2012

Carl Herrera said: ↑

Amazing what happens when one combines small sample sizes and small minds.
Click to expand...

I lol'ed

NotInMyHouse · Mar 30, 2012

jopatmc said: ↑

Let this marinate: The Rockets' new starting lineup with Dragic and Courtney Lee has outscored opponents by plus-16.2 points every 48 minutes while on the floor this season.

That's outstanding, I don't care how you slice it.
Click to expand...

I'd like to see how a Lowry and Lee combo stack up.

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Espn in. Tom Haberstroh Potential postseason crashers

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