Why is Reed Sheppard still not starting?

Here's my thoughts...

I think building a championship team with Amen on it will be easier to do that building a championship team with Sengun on it....For a few reasons...

I do think Sengun is the better overall offensive player, but I think that's with a caveat...Sengun is becoming a player who needs to have the ball in his hands to be effective.....He's not a guy who is going to cut...He's not a real spot up threat...He's not a lob threat...

Right now, he's mostly providing inefficient low post offense. I believe the offense needs to (Should have been) a Reed centric offense. He needs to initiate at least 85% of the possessions when he's in the game. Sengun too often wants to/needs the ball in his hands and he has regressed as a passer....And as a scorer for that matter. I think Amen is more willing to play off ball. Be a cutter. Catch lobs, be a secondary or tertiary ball handler...Do the dirty work. I think that meshes well with a player like Reed. Amen definitely isn't a pg in the NBA and I think that was doomed from the get go.

Defensively, it's not even close. Sengun doesn't provide any weakside shot blocking, he's slow...doesn't cover much ground and too often looks like he's not even giving effort. He's always had defensive limitations, but I think last years team just helped cover them a lot more. Jalen wasn't a great defender but he had decent size and elite quickness to stay with guys. Fred was a very good defender on the perimeter. Amen was more locked in on that end last year and of course Dillon was very good on that end. Then you had Jabari and Tari off the bench.

I do think Sengun could have more of an impact as a playmaker if he had a Coach that knew what he was doing offensively...Using him more like Adleman would use bigs....Alpi starting possessions posting from the three point line always makes me want to pour bleach in my eyes.

But anyways...I agree with what others have said about the stretch bigs coming into the NBA. I think just a stretch big who could also play some defense and protect the rim would do wonders for this team. Set screens, Catch lobs, Finish, and Shoot.

I don't know if Miami would do this, but I'd try to move Sengun and Tari for Ware and Herro. The math works, but Miami would probably want picks...And I'd give it to them.

Reed, Herro, Amen, KD, Ware with Fred and Jabari off the bench. Even if that's not possible, I like the idea of adding someone in that mold at the center position because I think it is a better fit with Reed who I think of all the young players we've drafted has the most upside as a star player.

 

Same for Durant ball should be in Reeds hands to initiate.

DD

 

Reed is the focal point when KD is off the floor - so u gotta stagger their minutes somehow...

 

Could still stagger minutes if they both start. CP3 and Harden staggered their minutes so that we always had a playmaker on the floor, but they both started. I think the problem is that Reed doesn't contribute that much defensively so starting him with KD and Sengun would limit his shots while hurting the defense overall. CP3 was an elite defender, shooter, and playmaker so starting him was a plus no matter what.

Right now, Reed is like Harden in OKC. Comes off the bench and can light it up but the better defender, Eason, starts the game. Our starting lineup has been struggling lately though.

 

i agree... i think in order for Reed to be a net positive, he has to be shooting at a high clip... but im certainly not expecting KD to defer shots to him - despite what some on this board may believe... and with the second unit, he can have Clint and other defenders around him...

 

Lost you at “Herro”

 

Did this ever get posted (or maybe someone already shared similar stats)?



Basically if you swap out Tari with Reed (which I think many are pushing for), you get a lineup that has performed worse (and overall negative) vs the regular starting group (which is a +9.5). There's more in the video, but based on this data, it seems pretty clear why Reed isn't starting...yet. No idea what it is like if you swap out Amen or Jabari for Reed though.

Given how many folks here and on Rockets Twitter seem to love data/analytics, I was a bit surprised to see this. I typically prefer to make data driven decisions vs deciding things based on vibes, and I figured many others were too, so I just assumed the data backed up what people have been clamoring for.

I will say it wouldn't surprise me if that lineup data has changed more recently. I do think Reed plays much too passively when he's with those guys vs when he's part of a lineup where he's clearly the lone offensive threat. I think if/when Reed can learn to stay aggressive even when he's out there with 2 all-stars, that might prove to be a good time to start him (though you still likely have lineup balance issues from the bench units). I'd have to rewatch last nights game, but it did seem like Reed did most of his good stuff when he wasn't necessarily sharing the court with the starters (especially late in the game). Of course maybe some of that was playing so many minutes without a break, but I do think this is a big problem for Reed in general. I'm super happy he's showing great development in that area though.

 

I can't believe we have a coach who has determined that Reed is not good enough to start. Meanwhile, over the past 10 games, Tari has a 35% FG (33-94) and 23% 3-point FG (11-47). I was fine when Tari was placed in the starting lineup, since he was one of the top 3-point shooters in the league, but now he's shooting threes the same as Amen.

I don't care if Tari is playing for a contract next year, and he wants to start. His shooting and Reed's performance have shown that he needs to come off the bench.

 

Actually the data is not that surprising. Reed has only recently been playing great. He was very inconsistent in the first half of the season. He went through a terrible stretch in January. Tari is the opposite. He shot extremely good the first half of the season and only recently became cold. So if you use the season data, it should be expected that Tari has more positive impact so far. But those two guys are headed to opposite directions. I wonder what it will look like by the end of the regular season.

 

Tari hasn't done **** for weeks. I am ready for Reed in the starting lineup.

That said, I have problems with the way he's playing defense lately. Is he too frail to take charges?

 

“If the facts are against you, argue the law. If the law is against you, argue the facts. If the law and the facts are against you, pound the table and yell like hell”

 

Reed is almost always sharing the court with at least 3 starters. Amen and Reed are very well in-tuned and should be sharing the court as much as possible. When they are in the game together, they share the initiator role when Ime isn’t pulling his Durant and Sengun ISO bs. Reed hit three 3 pointers to start out the fourth quarter. They were all off of Amen assists. We can have the best backcourt in the league next year with the right coach. It only matters to the fans who they call the PG. Unfortunately, Reed is going back to the bench for FVV to start the year. Amen also sets the best picks of anyone on the team other than Adams, which is ridiculous and also a function of an inept coaching staff.

 

I agree with everything you wrote except for Herro. I believe you need/have to pair Sheppard with another starting guard that one their 2 or so best attributes is defense.

 

What's your point?
Look, I know everybody is massively in love with Reed... and i think the kid is coming along... but folks gotta stop acting like he's the messiah or something... Sengun is soft, Amen cant shoot, Bari is a tard... but heaven forbid there is any real assessment of Reed Sheppard's limitations.... no, no, he's a generational shooter and being held back by our coaching ineptness... lol... folks gotta get a grip. lol

 

My point was in response to a guy that said Sheppard never plays with starters. You must not pay attention if you think I am one who doesn’t discuss Reed’s limitations. I think he should start the rest of the year, because as our esteemed GM said, it isn’t our year. Might as well give Amen and Reed as much time on the court together to see what we will potentially have next year if the FO wakes up and unloads Ime and/or FVV. You are consistently negative about all our young players. I guess you think that makes you objective. It really only makes you a troll.

 

no... i dont usually pay much attention to your posts... since u r usually just railing about the ineptness of mgmt and coaching... but if u think im "consistently negative about all our young players" - then obviously u dont pay attention to the breadth of my posts either... so why dont we just go on ignoring one another...

 

Sounds good.

 

Well true, the data is not surprising (and I even kinda spoke to some of that). I guess my surprise is more that given how many people want Reed to start, I would have figured maybe the data was different than what I expected.

I do agree things have likely changed recently, though I'd also like to see the data to confirm that. Even if the numbers have swapped, you probably need a larger sample size to justify changing the starting lineup. If Tari fixes his stuff and Reed goes back into a slump, then I don't know if I see any decent data for justifying starting him (and certainly you don't swap out starters every 2 weeks based on who is playing well at the time).

If I'm being honest, I think...or hope...that Reed is legit and actually does keep this up. I hope Tari plays better too, but ideally even if that is the case, Reed might end up the better player in that lineup with data to prove it. But I think it makes sense to wait for that data. I'm in no hurry to rush things, especially if throwing him in the starting lineup results in him just deciding to play more passively because he thinks he can rely on the other guys to do the heavy lifting (and thus, he makes fewer mistakes).

I actually thought his screens were pretty bad for a good chunk of the year, although maybe better since around the ASB. I recall Ime saying they had to work with him and show him tape from his previous seasons where he did a much better job.

Having said that, I think I might agree that the team in general doesn't set great screens. Especially the guys who get major minutes.

Hell Reed is probably one of the better screeners if I'm being honest.

 

Yeah I have been noticing that for a few weeks too. He seems a bit allergic to take charges. Should learn from Brunson, prime Lowry, etc.

 

I've never really been sold on Sengun .... I don't mind moving him at all. I really don't consider him a foundational piece.

I like that bottom line deal with Miami, I wonder if Riley would do it?

But again, I don't think Amen is a foundational piece either and the idea of building a roster around a guy who's a 4th or 5th option who also kills your spacing seems nuts to me - no matter what else he does well.
And that's what you have to do is build the roster to suit his strengths and weaknesses because you just can't hide him anywhere else.
There was a tweet posted of his highlights today and the first one was him in the corner completely undefended with his defender coming all the way across the court to help, the next one was him and Alpi in the pick and roll - both defenders stayed glued to Alpi. The next couple were similar where he is just not guarded. Yep, he got his on a few possessions but at the expense of everyone else on all other possessions.

Then there's the contract - I don't know what it's gonna look like, some people talking max money, I think Jabari money might be too much (14% next year) and I doubt he takes that ($24m ish).. In this era of the CBA dominated by the aprons, you can't afford bad contracts.

Honestly, I wouldn't mind trading both of them and keeping Reed, Durant, Jabari and Tari.


Let some other GM build around flawed players.