Reed Sheppard is the Rockets’ Franchise Player™

If Ime has any say, Reed will go back to the end of the bench until trying to play FVV 40 minutes a game leads to injury.

 

Honestly, we need to trade FVV this summer, if Stone is smart he will move him on, I don't want to see a slow as dirt FVV trying to run this broken offense.....trade away Ime's wobby !

DD

 

Exactly. He’s probably going back to the bench this year. Ime may be one of the worst coaches in the league. He is the definition of Fool’s Gold.

 

So what do you put the odds?

 

If Reed finishes out the season like this it puts the org into a pickle, IMO.

There is a certain level of performance from your own high lottery pick, going into year 3, at which you are simply required to start him and feature him. You don't have a choice anymore - just how the NBA works. Reed is within reach of that.

I get the sense Ime (and to a lesser extent maybe Stone) are wary of that, because it forces their hand in ways they'd rather put off into the future. They'd prefer to keep him wrapped in cotton wool and still unproven / insecure in his place in the hierarchy for now.

But, if Reed ends the year as this guy at age 21 then Reed is untradeable in any deal this summer; FVV has to come off the bench or get traded; and it means the young core "wins" over the KD/FVV old guy axis, because you're not going to trade young guys+picks for Giannis or whoever when you have three 23 and under locked in core guys who are still developing. It's their timeline.

We'll see if Reed can keep it up.

 

I think if Reed is NOT the man by year 3 he was a blown pick. I think he is right where the org wants him to be. VanVleet has clearly made an impact on him, as they had hoped, and they are now looking at being able to envision a future with 4 of their top picks turning into a permanent unit. The best part is all 4 of those guys play a different position so now, all they need to do is get their hands on Kingston Flemings in the upcoming draft and the future is set for the next 12 years.

PG - Reed Sheppard
SG - Kingston Flemings
SF - Amen Thompson
PF - Jabari Smith Jr.
..C - Alperen Sengun

You can swap positions on Flemings and Sheppard if you want but you essentially have 4 playmakers in the starting unit. Not bad.

 

I've been thinking a lot about FVV's eventual return and what is going to happen there. Obviously if he somehow comes back for the playoffs the most he'd do is play like 15-20 minutes off the bench. But next season... if Reed is still playing like this, Fred probably has to go, unless they have an honest talk with him and he's like "I'm cool with being a 6th man at this point in my career".

Moreso than what Fred would bring coming off the bench, I think the team could really use a properly-sized shooting guard who can play passable defense and who is a proficient movement shooter and secondary playmaker. It's been a glaring hole this season, and I don't love the idea of starting Amen/Reed/Tari/Jabari/Sengun in the long term, post-KD. Okogie has been okay, but he's an end of the rotation guy, not a 6th man or a starter. It doesn't have to be a star, even just a guy along the lines of Donte DiVincenzo I think would seriously help with our spacing.

 

I’m loving the unintentional comedy gold of all 165 lbs. of Kingston Flemings in the same backcourt as Reed. If we were going down that path we could have traded for Dillingham for virtually nothing. Gotten the Kentucky guys back together. I mean aren’t Flemings and Dillingham the same player?

 

The "Melo Effect" on Reed's psyche perhaps?

 

Comedy gold or Victory gold?

 

I mean he might be alright in the pros, but I’d go so far as to say none of the Sampson era players have been a difference maker in the NBA. I think Jarace was the best of the prospects and it’s taken him a while to get going.

 

Most likely, I think FVV comes back in a reduced form, such that he is pretty much forced to bench or is traded.

However, if FVV comes back as good as he was last season, why wouldn't the Rockets just play Reed, FVV, Amen, KD, and Sengun? Amen and Sengun both playing together is likely a much bigger deal than FVV and Reed. If a FVV Green backcourt can be part of a great defense, FVV and Reed can as well.

 

A few things:

- Reed alone doesn't fix the Amen/Sengun offense problems - We have to solve that in any case.

- I think Reed has shown he has earned A LOT more playing time but let's not go crazy on a guy roasting bad teams like the Kings, Jazz, and Wizards - even in that Orlando game he caught a break because Suggs is clearly still playing his way into game shape and was a hot mess out there.

- I do think Reed's range and the fact he is starting to develop more reliable counters to all of his moves - the deep shot, the middie - it just allows him to start exploring some finishing at the rim - that's HUGE because if he is indeed a 3 level scorer - that changes the offense in a fundamental way. Ime has to not only embrace it - he has to run offense that takes advantage of that. I think I'm starting to see that a little bit. There was an offball flare screen Amen ran for Reed last game I hadn't seen before and Reed caught the pass in midair and immediately fired it to a cutting Amen for an easy dunk. THOSE are the types of plays that separated the Warriors from all the rest. When we figure out ways to create threats both on ball(in this case when the ball is in KD's hands) AND off ball at the same time(in this case with Reed) - that will be a new unlock for this team. Then it becomes about Amen and Tari and Bari and DFS finishing plays rather than creating them. All of a sudden those guys don't look as limited...but GOT to unlock Reed to make that happen.

 

I think the plan has always been either Reed or Amen supplanting Fred. Otherwise they would have brought in a more competent backup PG. But Reed grew up faster than they expected because daddy Fred was out for the season. So the perfect plan of KD-FVV and the kids contending for the championship is gone. "Not our year!" Their Plan B next season would be the speeding up of the original plan and have Fred come off the bench. This might even have been discussed with Fred when he signed the contract.

 

You missed my point. This wasn't a micro-analysis of Reed's game or our situation, I've offered that elsewhere, and don't really disagree with you.

It's the macro-view: in the 2020s NBA, if you draft a player with a high lottery pick and they show themselves to be a clear plus NBA player in real minutes on a competitive team by the end of year 2, your organization is basically forced to start them year 3 and going forward, period.

That's not Rockets-specific. It's about dynamics coming via agents, player relationships, GM incentives etc. You can't force a #3 pick to be a backup in his extension year when other teams would be lining up to start him and extend him like a core guy. You probably can if he was a SRP or even a mid to late FRP, but not a #3 pick. You're taking too much money out of pockets.

Reed has not quite established himself to that level yet, but if he continues playing like this to close out the year and is respectable in the playoffs, that's where we'll be IMO. And that puts Ime/the FO in a pickle wrt FVV and the the old guys vs. young core tension.

 

I think this is a really good post and need more playing time!

 

Yeah, I thought about that, but man is that a small starting frontcourt. Even smaller than FVV/Jalen. I also don't think FVV is as good of a shooter as I'd like to see on a team starting Amen and Sengun. I've defended his shooting in the past due to his high volume of 3P shots, and I do think we're missing that aspect of his game this season, but we can still do better.

If we believe Reed is the point guard of the future, and Amen and Sengun can be great secondary playmakers, then what we need most isn't actually Steady Freddy's point guard skills. We need the best movement shooter we can get who is big enough and solid enough to hold his own defensively 1-3, even against bigger wings.

$25M is also a lot of money to be paying a 6'0" backup point guard, if that ends up being FVV's role.

 

Only Kevin would be allowed to take that shot on a Morey team

 

I think Fred has a player option and can’t be traded without his permission. I haven’t seen anything about the Rockets wanting to Trade Fred and I haven’t seen anything about Fred wanting to leave. The Rockets and Fred seem to be happy with each other at this point. Fred seems to be very present with the team this year and seems to have good relationships with everyone on the team.

The Rockets might work a trade that puts Fred in a desirable spot, but it would have to be somewhere Fred feels good about. That might be a hard thing to find, but it may happen.

Strange as it may sound. Could the Rockets and Fred agree to a new longer term contract if he opts out for next season? Say 40 million for three years. If Fred really like it here and the Rockets are comfortable with him, then maybe that’s an option. Flame away.