Last year, most on this board predicted a first-place finish in the AL West. We all know how it ended up. So, where do you think the Astros will finish in the AL West standings this year? How many games do you think they'll win? If you think the Astros finish below first, who do you have taking the division?
There is a really wide variance to potential outcomes for the Astros this season, but I think there’s more upside than downside. It would not shock me if they ran away with the division, with their starting pitchers wildly exceeding projections and their lineup staying healthy with the bottom of their order comprised of breakout young outfielders. I would be pretty shocked if this team ended up totally out of contention by the deadline. But if I were betting, I would wager on a mixed bag. One or more starting pitchers and veteran hitters will get hurt, some young/unproven guys will exceed expectations and some will disappoint. I would set the o/u at 88.5 wins, with 90th percentile outcome at 103 wins and 10th percentile outcome at 76 wins. Im optimistic about Correa, Cole, Matthews, Burrows, Arrighetti, and Blubaugh relative to their projections. The good news is I’m not really pessimistic about any particular player relative to their projections.
I picked them to miss the playoffs last year. They'll do the same with a 3rd place finish. We'll be lucky to win 80 games, but I'll concede up to 84 max
After back to back seasons of terrible injury luck, I feel like law of averages kicks in and they stay reasonably healthy. Brown repeats his 2025 season Imai has a very good year and is an impressive #2, challenging for ROY. Either Arrighetti or Burrows break out and become an easy pick to start a postseason game. Blubaugh gives us all fond memories of Brad Peacock. Hader doesn't pitch until late April but is healthy and deadly once he does. The 3 other lefties all pitch well enough to be effective and rarely mentioned. They get a very good young RH leverage reliever at the deadline. Yordan breaks Bagwell's HR record with 48. Walker, Altuve, Correa, and Paredes all exceed their projections but don't have career years. The outfield is a mixed bag and inconsistent throughout the year, lots of ups and downs, but overall grades out at MLB average. Pena takes a small step back, not as good as 2025 but still better than his first 3 seasons. Seattle does what they do, underachieving the season after finally having a breakout. They have some injuries to star players, including 2 of their starters and the young guys they must use to replace them aren't ready, and they end up battling Texas for 2nd. The A's score like trust-fund frat boys but have no pitching. The Angels generate talk of contraction. Astros are #2 seed behind the Tigers who use an extremely weak AL Central to be the only MLB team with 100 wins. Brown outduels Skubal in TWO epic ALCS games, one in Detroit and the other in Houston to win ALCS MVP and send the Astros to the World Series against the Mets. Then they finally get revenge for 1986!!
Not optimistic at all. The Astros' main problem is the "people in charge." They are not very good at what they do.
One thing that I think might be different about this year is that the AL West could be pretty tough. The Mariners are stacked. The Rangers have a ton of upside. The A’s lineup could keep them in it enough to trade for pitching at the deadline. Even the Angels might not be terrible. That’s different from most years during 2015-2024 when the Astros had the division mostly to themselves.
So you predict they will get 200 games total combined from their 3 best hitters again and the 4 completely new SP will give up the same runs as the depth guys they were forced to use last year? Cool.
So who was the linchpin that represents the difference in “mentality” from 2017/2022 to now? Bregman? Dusty Baker or AJ Hinch?? Verlander?
This team has always been great as a whole. Too many pieces have left without the mentality to replace it and that is what this team lacks. I'm happy to be wrong and feel free to bump this thread any time at season's end... but baring a crazy trade at the deadline, I don't see this team making the playoffs this year.
