[Official] Astros Offseason

It is an interesting question.

I don't think that Loperfido or Trammell make the team unless they are blistering and an injury.

Cole, Smith, Dezenzo and Matthews all offer far high upside, and the Astros need that in the OF.

I think if Matthews looks competent, he makes the team because he can play the outfield and multiple spots on the infield. He also adds speed, which is something both Dicky and Brown have wanted to add.

I think unless Cam Smith looks lost, he makes the team as the right fielder and centerfielder. I could be wrong about this, this isn't based on inside information, just what I know about Brown and I also think the talent of Smith will bubble over.

If Cavan Biggio is healthy, I think that he likely makes it. He has struggled with physical issues the last two years. When he isn't banged up he draws walks and he is a smart base runner.

Cole will make it - even with a near 40% strikeout rate if he does everything else well. He is prone to being very streaky, so I suppose a terrible Spring could doom him, but he seems to be a guy that doesn't get phased by much at all - and I know the Astros would love to have him pan out even with massive strikeouts, because the rest of his game is very high.

 

Not exactly the best start for Costanza.

 

Yeah not pretty

 

Teng looked good.

 

If Jason Alexander plays any part for the 2026 Houston Astros, something catastrophic definitely happened

 

He was awesome for us last year, but I fear he will be this year's Tayler Scott. Pitched beyond his capabilities the year prior then falls back down to earth.

 

That's why we have 107 pitchers to pick from.

 

To me Smith is at a bit of a disadvantage because he will not make the team as a bench player. Cole, Matthews, Loperfido, Biggio, and to a lesser degree Dezenzo all could make the team as a bench player even if they don’t win a starting corner OF job. I really wonder how secure Allen’s roster spot is. If you consider Cole and Allen locks, there’s only 2 open spots: one for an outfielder and one for a versatile bench player.

Based on what I’ve seen, I am hoping Cole is the everyday RF and the bench is Matthews and Biggio or Unroe. Loperfido, Dezenzo, and Smith would all be in AAA.

 

Think about Luhnow signing Brantley.

Problem is that Crane/Dsna have signed Walker/Abreu instead of Brantley.

 

Brantley didn’t fit the criteria of a 1st or 2nd tier free agent, but also for as cool and good as Brantley was, he wasn’t a great value in the end. His first contract with Houston was $32M/2yrs and was a great value. But then he signed another $32M/2yrs contract and was barely worth the contract, missing over half the 2nd season of it. Then he signed another $12M/1yr contract and didn’t contribute anything. In sum with Houston he was paid $76M/5yrs and put up 8.4 fwar (<2 fwar/yr). Fair value but not some home run contract; and he represents the upper end of the free agent values Houston has signed.

 

Give me a Brantley FA signing every year.

With pitching, guys like Brantley filling in the holes yeah I'll take that.

 

Like I said, Brantley didn’t represent a very significant signing. He got 2 years. Those are the deals I think Houston should be doing instead of larger deals like the ones Abreu and Walker got.

 

It’s not that different. 2018 $32 million guaranteed for an oft-injured OF is about equivalent to a 3 year 1B deal for guys on the wrong side of 30. Brantley essentially replaced Reddick (both in playing time/position as well as salary slot). Still looking for somebody to replace Yuli.

Brantley was also a needed clubhouse leader for a still relatively young team., Maybe Walker is one too. Before Correa acquisition, there was certainly a void there.

 

It’s very subjective; adjusting for market changes the AAV is probably similar. But Brantley was 31 when he signed with Houston for 2 years; Walker was 33 when he got 3 years. I think there’s a big difference between giving a 31 year old 2 years and a 33 year old 3 years.

 

Brantley gets a deal that is much more lucrative if he were signing in 26 as a 31 year old. This market is a little bonkers and you have to spend to get less valuable players (if you haven’t developed them).

 

Is there? It’s even closer when you put it that way.

There are positional differences and injury history to consider as well. Brantley was a risk. Walker/Abreu were risks.

Both signings were to replace/upgrade what was leaving the roster and there weren’t suitable in house replacements.

 

Luhnow seems to have been better at signing those types of free agents. The deals for Reddick, Gurriel, and Brantley’s first contract all worked out pretty well, and he didn’t have any FA deals >$30M that went south.

 

Its not a perfect science unless you automatically restrict yourselves from players over 30 or players who've been injured, but the argument that the Brantley signing was in an entirely different category from a Walker signing seems a little biased and revisionist.

Colby Rasmus QO wasn't a smart decision. Beltran for $20 million for a contending team that still had needs (and filled them via trades) wasn't a great decision. JV's 2nd extension (where he was rehabbing for all of it) was over $30 million. The LMJ extension has already been discussed.

Those teams had enough in the pipeline to overcome mistakes (not mentioning some of the trades that didn't pan out... Kazmir, Gomez, Giles), but Luhnow also wasn't closer to developing a first baseman than this current regime has been.

It should also be noted that its been more than 10 years since a first round pick actually made an impact on the major league roster (not to mention the 2 penalty years). That's over 3 different GM's. When you're not netting impact players out of your highest paid draft picks, and you're trying to compete year-in/year-out, the MLB roster can get expensive to fill needs.

 

If you don’t think there’s a significant difference between a 2 year deal and a 3 year deal, that’s ok, but it’s just a completely subjective opinion we differ on, not revisionism on my part.

 

Basically the same end result as Reddick in my opinion. Mid tier deal. Probably got basically dead ass even value out of what they were paid here in houston, pretty close to unplayable (but alas they still played) at the end of it all.