From markets to streets: Iran protests spread nationwide on day two

Tousi TV was notoriously wrong during the protests. All these Twitter accounts are by and large garbage. Everyone is so excited to be the first to call it, that endless streams of accounts have been calling it impending within hours for weeks.

 

I bet Israel bombs tomorrow because the timing works for the Netanyahu trial.

I cannot see under any circumstance us doing a ground campaign.

 

Feels more like 1998 than 2003.

 

He is going to die in a few years no matter what we do.

At this point I am not even sure what the point of US foreign policy is in the Middle East. We are energy independent. We have armed Israel and its regional allies to the teeth with the latest military tech. We (MAGA) have already said we do not care about regional conflicts so who cares if the Middle East is killing itself.

So we put in a pro US puppet. Then what? Are we doing this for Israel? Because at this point Israel is a liability more than an asset especially after Iran falls.

 

They absolutely do. But installing a monarchy or Islamicsocialist government is a step backwards even from this regime.

But as time goes on I have no hope Iran can become a Germany or UK or even a Turkey or India. It’ll end up a Pakistan or Egypt if it’s lucky. Syria and Libya if it’s not.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Economist_Democracy_Index

 

The US has sent a message to Iran not to respond harshly should the US strike Iran, the request has been rejected - Al Arabiya

 

NEW: Turkey plans buffer zone if Iran government falls

• Ankara draws up plans to prevent a wave of potential refugees in case of a US attack on Iran

• Last year Turkey estimated 1 million people could come to the border in such scenario

 

At this point, I am leaning toward the US and Iran implementing JCPOA II rather than have military strikes, or token strikes like the US bombing of Fordow and the Iranian strikes on the emptied US military base in Qatar, followed by JCPOA II. The risks for both sides are quite high. US prestige will be in tatters if a carrier group is successfully targeted and destroyed by a combination of drones and hypersonic missiles. The Iranian government falling would result in millions of refugees pouring into Turkey which Turkey explicitly does not want, especially after the Syrians who fled into Turkey.

In this peace scenario, the Iranian government survives the day, and the snap back sanctions that went into effect post US withdrawal from JCPOA II will be relieved so the Iranian economy would improve dramatically the following weeks and months.

The Israeli government will likely be very unhappy with this outcome. Anything less than the destruction of the Iranian government will be seen as a strategic failure for Israel's interests. And the US has shown that Israel has a very long leash.

The timing of the protests, the scale, and the coordination makes me think that this was intentionally triggered by the US or Israel with the hopes that it would conflagrate into a people's revolution. Especially given the immediately proceeding meeting between Trump and Netanyahu.

The Iranian people who protested did so because the conditions in Iran are terrible, not because they were tricked into it. Thousands died because they wanted to see a better life and future.