[Official] Reds @ Astros

As I have pointed out, if you think Brown is worth $38M per year that is a good contract.

If you think he is worth less than that, you are overpaying.

And I have you the math to show why.

 

If he keeps dominating like this he probably busts 20 million in year 3 of arbitration alone. Probably gets 12-15 in year 2.

If he keeps dominating, he’s probably worth 40 million once he hits the FA market. Astros could be paying him 25 for 3 seasons instead.

 

Yordan was 6/116. Pitchers never get as many years or as much money as position players bc of the inherent injury risk.

 

That’s not how it works. I told you. ID showed you the math. There is zero world where any team would make that offer.

 

4th straight season of decline? He had a .789 OPS in 2023 so that’s false.

Outside of 2020, which was a weird year for all, he had been a consistent hitter until last season. Given how many hitters have gone to Seattle and struggled, that shouldn’t have been a huge deterrent. He also started showing life at the end of last season.

I said this several months back on here so this isn’t me saying this after the fact - I wanted Polanco back in January. We desperately needed a lefty bat and he fit a position of need.

 

No pitcher has ever gotten more than $13MM in any year of arbitration in MLB history. $5 / $10 /$15 would be pretty impressive and record-breaking and would still net $30MM over 3 years.

 

Sorry - I was looking at WAR for that stat, but you're right by OPS which is a better measure for his hitting. ESPN has his WAR at 4.8, 2.8, 2.1, and 1.4 from 2021-2024.

 

Fair point. I didn’t realize that. I know a position player just got 20 in arbitration.

That may change things a tad but not much. I would still bet the Astros offer is closer to 6-150 than 6-120, if they offer before next season.

 

LOL Bucknor gifted blanco his 3rd strikout

 

In arbitration, I guess pitchers get less. In FA they don’t. Look at G. Cole contract from 6 years ago.

 

Skubal is two years ahead of Brown and is probably the best comparison point if Brown sustains. Skubal got $2.5MM in year 1 and $10.5MM in year 2. If he keeps his performance up, he'll break the $13MM record from Cole and Fried next year so that'll give a good comparison point.

 

The highest arbitration salaries I have been able to find for a SP:
Arb 1: Dallas Keuchel $7.25M
Arb 2: Jake Arrietta $10.7M
Arb 3: Jake Arrietta $15.6375 = $33.5875M

Figure the 3 arb seasons at $35M then whatever you think he is worth per year × the number of FA years you want to buybout.

 

strikezone gonna be all over the place this afternoon

 

Interesting! My googling for some reason didn't include Arrietta's results:

Highest MLB Arbitration Salaries | AP News

 

So 6-150 might be a bit of a bargain according to your numbers because he will probably get minimum 40 million when he hits FA in 3 years, if he stays this dominant. If the Astros offer 6-120 after this season, I could see him turning it down. 6-150 is cooking with gas. Maybe 140 gets it done.

 

Ah - I see the issue. Jake (and others like Framber who signed for $18MM this year) avoided arbitration - so these were negotiated 1-yr contracts. The numbers I had - $13MM for Cole and Fried - were the highest awarded by an actual arbitrator.

 

Dezenzo's walk up song should be Shaddap You Face.

 

I remember this cringy tune

 

4/23 for brendan rodgers with RiSP.

holy toledo bad............

 

once again, how is brendan rodgers a top 5 pick in his draft?