He's saying he'll have a plan this week for Texas to go back to work. I'm not sure that ultimately matters if you live in a big city in TX though. I had friends in Marshall, Texas, shutting down offices long before the governor ever said boo about the virus.
The stay-at-home order is still in effect until April 30th and the disaster declaration was extended 30 days.
The Disaster Declaration was extended because it allows the State to tap into federal emergency money. It was expected that it would be extended but he can still slowly open the economy while still having the state under a disaster declaration. @CCity Zero Do you do any investing in real life? As most of you can see Mortgage REIT has been demolished and forced a lot of companies into liquidation. Most REIT's are down 40-60% and a lot of hedge funds were highly leveraged. A lot of small apartment complexes are about to hit the market as institutions are running for cash at the moment. If you're patient enough in the next few months you'll be able to nab some great deals for single-family houses and smaller apartment complexes as more institutions are deleveraging. My sister is a broker in Houston and focuses on the commercial side and also said shes there will be firesales in the coming months.
Call me what you want but its opportunities like this in which fortunes are made. I've already talked to my banker about tapping an equity line if oil really does fall below 18 dollars. Obviously, any smart trader would have naked puts along the way as a hedge but I'm definitely ready to go all-in on oil at <20 dollar oil. Ice vehicles still rule the world and will do so for the formidable future. Globalization being such an important part of society today I don't see air travel going away anytime soon. The only industry which takes a long term impact by this virus is cruise ships and even that will bounce back at some point. The government will manipulate this market to the fullest to artificially raise prices. You do know that O&G makes up almost 9% of our GDP? You think the government will risk losing over 11 million high paying jobs (close to 15 million with the supplemental jobs it creates) ? Also, the word is... Don't forget that Saudi Arabia invested 1 BILLION dollars in European oil Companies just this past week. They're not stupid and they obviously know where the price is headed much better than any of us. They are the El Chapo of OPEC. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...n-in-european-oil-companies-wsj-idUSKCN21R01W
I don’t know any of this to say anything. Was just calling you what you say some may call you... poking fun iow. Good luck. Btw, I do know enough to know that I haven’t a clue what’s going to happen... what the fed has been doing is batshit crazy and impressive. Scary time.
Thanks. Ive got close to 80k on just oilx, USO, and USL and will be adding more at these current levels. This isn't like 2008 where the equities market was super cheap and you could have found great long term value with stocks. This whole stock market is a complete **** show and I'm not touching it unless we fall back down another 20% minimum. I've never seen a bigger disconnect from the real economy and the stock market as there is today. If the Fed could buy oil and store it somewhere I'm sure they'd be buying it in the billions but they cant so that's the only market I see which has value. I may be wrong in the short term about its ridiculous hearing people talking about this may be the demise of oil LOL.
Good luck, I hope it works out. I agree with your thinking on oil going up eventually, but even if there's a 95% chance of this being the right move, I wouldn't go to the point of risking my home. There are also predictions of price dropping to single digits per barrel when storage capacity runs out, but I'm sure you've already considered the other side of the bet.
I dropped UAL at 8:31am Central. I now have a list of 18 stocks. Movie theaters, cruise lines, airlines, travel sites, and casino stocks. Money to be made here but when do you go in? 2-3 weeks more is what I'm thinking. But that may be still too early or even too late after today. All of these are going down across the board as of right now.
Sorry guys I've been MIA... Anyway.... Best spot this morning was call options this week for Tesla @600-610 call... I didn't buy them.. GD it though.. I knew it was undervalued. I expected it to probably clear a grand or two this week easy but not this - in one day. I still need to reply to some messages here and will tonight, I've been working on options more, but if we did Tesla it'd have been nice. Like the volume shot up last night for calls in that 600-610 range. 1 contract and we'd have cleared like 4-6k just today on selling it TODAY - not even having to deal with executing the contract. Obviously the buy-in this morning was like 1-2k per contract, but I knew it was the move when I saw crazy amount of volume being placed... Of course I wanted to try and find the value bet options. And was being safe with all the trash we've seen on the market. Anyway, for some newer traders that haven't done options - if you decide to do options and aren't sure you're picking things right just message here so someone can answer questions. The reason I'm stating this is because you absolutely want to only buy calls/puts. Never (unless you're fully aware of the losses/the literal Monopoly bank) - write a contract to sell calls/puts. I mean unless you have the shares and realize the losses. Anyone who wrote those contracts for Tesla are having a bad day. Basically buying options you want to buy the call/put and then sell those exact contracts - the max loss is your price you paid for the option. Then you sell those same contracts - never write a contract - ie start a new one. I've seen guys go down negative - like 20-100k+ and can owe the broker not understanding what you're doing on these can literally ruin you. So if you have questions just put it in the thread. I'm also not directing this at anyone, but just in case someone sees these numbers on profits and they're new to options you definitely need to be very careful.
Alright guys, if @CCity Zero or anyone else can help me understand this. I get the concept of strike price, put, call, 1 contract = 100 shares, etc. But I'm having trouble understanding this: For example: If I were to buy the strike price of $675, it means I would only make something on the contract after it reaches the break even point correct ($692.10)? Now assuming that is correct, how can we calculate how much we would make. Let's say the expiration date is April 17 as in the picture, and I purchase the contract as is in the picture (for $1710.00). Assuming Tesla goes to strike price tomorrow, what would be the profit? Or would it need to reach breakeven point first ($692.10) to profit. If it does, how can we calculate what profit is made on the contract after that? I've watched videos and read up on this but still having a little difficulty understanding this. If someone can help. Thanks.
With all the stock stuff we've seen, advice above is easiest so you don't miss entry. I still think we're going to see drops but l think if these are long investments and good companies don't try to time it too crazy unless you're continuing to daytrade and watch it a lot. I'd personally watch cruises longer just because of this date continuing to get pushed out but their backers/investors are keeping them up for now. Others though, even if we're off by 20%+ all the ground these companies will make up will leave you with a lot of earnings by slowly avg in. The thing I've been trying to find are value options that are far out. Short ones are easier to spot sometimes/cheap but the far ones are nice to throw in a few because you can always trade the contract later (I mean assuming it's far out at a year or so you might find some nice deals, it's definitely harder to find good pricing further out but at least the expiration isn't coming this week etc). - I'm sure you know this but just suggestions And definitely not financial advice or guarantee, I personally feel cruises still are going to take a hit, but we'll see so far this market has been wild. I also don't know why I was rushing Thursday... Closing out NURO... HAHA, just thought I'd share a lazy trade I didn't follow up w/....
Right at $692.10 is where the stock needs to hit in order to break even on the contract purchase and start being in the money. At that point on it's all profit from there. I knew Tesla was good for this morning, I am not sure on tomorrow yet so this is a huge risk/reward thing right now with the amount it climbed already. With that said, when you hit profit, you want to watch it closely and probably trade the contract outright that day or sooner, so before the expiration. The reason I say this, is the closer this get's to expiration the value will drop (assuming it's not way in the money). And you can typically get very close to value I mean even if it's a bit lower just to move it, someone will take it and you don't risk bad news coming out on the stock and ruining your money in the last hour. Unfortunately on RH you have to call them to get them to exercise the contract early. IE, if you were way in the money and couldn't find someone to trade the contract with you can call RH on the phone... sometimes hard to do, but they will execute the contract Now, instead of waiting until Friday at 3pm (or whatever the expiration is). This way you get your shares and can just sell them yourself (if no one will trade the contract), the reason I mention this, is because I've heard some not so great stories of RH doing the contract at 3pm (if you don't have the stocks ready to be covered) and going way undervalue to move them. Kind of like the market price vs limit price thing we were discussing before. With that said, you can buy the contract, and it will probably drop in 1/4 to 1/2 in value, but could always attempt to offload it if not looking good, again though, I haven't heard new numbers yet on this, so don't want you to lose $2k.. like this morning I would have felt good about telling you to do it and given you why, but right now, while it's harder for a large cap to get manipulated, I just worry this has some pullback or something. This market is a train wreck. One other thing, since this contract is Out of the Money you're getting value and saving some but you have to assume/feel good on the stock rising, but if you have a contract that's in the money, while you're paying a bit more, it will be easier to move since you can set the price (assuming the stock doesn't rocket. I do buy options out of the money, like this morning the call on Tesla, was out but it was in the money so fast it didn't matter. Sometimes on these since the market is closed it might be better to buy in the morning or even buy one a week out, because the closer this gets to Friday the less value the contract by itself will have - assuming money isn't looking good. Obviously you don't want to think that way since you want to make winning plays, but it's always good to have risk assessment. Like options are where you can absolutely make the most, but even playing safe on these 2k is risky since it could be way down. Any option you do play, watch overnight volume and then in morning place bid to get best price, unless you know it's going to climb since the option can only be bought/traded during market hours.
How far out you think? I mean long-term always a great play so definitely agree, and won't hold you to any predictions just curious what you're thinking
Its way too early for those stocks. Listen to economists and not stock market talking heads. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/13/business/coronavirus-economy.html
a break out is always accompanied by heavy volume. MSFT's volume has been declining for the past 4-5 trading days, suggesting that it is consolidating, waiting for a catalyst MSFT's COVID 19 peak-to-trough-decline was ~ 60 pt. after retracing ~2/3 of that decline, it has been sitting / consolidating on the 50 MA. its earning call will be next Wed, After market close. i expect a run up to earnings + couple more days Constructed this play sold Apr 165/160 PUT bought jun 165 CALL Most probably, will sell the CALL early Friday, 17 Apr 2020 and let the PUT spread expire worthless
