Get well soon Invisible fan. Just looking at the data, if you haven't shown fever already for 10 days now..it doesnt' look likely that you have covid19. Most people show it in the first days even if it is low. It is the overwhelmingly most common symptom. And if you have it, after so much time without fever you are of the mildest of the mild cases except of children.
sure. But not 80%. I read that in some areas in NY, the more affluent ones, the cases are very low compared to Queens. The deaths would start snowballing long before the infection could reach anywhere near 80% unless the virus had an even longer incubation period. So maybe in some neighbourhoods in NY, where people live with roommates in cramped households, where everyone gets on public transportation, the infection topically is 80% but as a whole it isn't. Let alone in less densely populated cities or towns. I am sure there will be estimations on the infected % of NY too soon. Why there haven't been already? I have trouble finding data about the US. For example do you know what is the gender ratio in people in the ICU or in deaths in america? What was the most common comorbidities? Race, average age of death?
Testing, testing, testing. Got to do it. What it looks like is starting to appear in several states is a plateau in testing. That is, there is only so much lab and trained lab technician capacity in each state. When you hit that limit, there's nowhere to go no matter how many test kits you have or how many tests you perform. It will look like your numbers are also plateauing. I think I said it before, but this is like the Chernobyl dosimeter problem. Several states have anticipated this and relayed it to the Task Force, yet unscrupulous and/or ignorant politicians will interpret it as progress. It is instead a desperate cry for coordinated federal testing, of which we will apparently not get. None of this had to happen the way it did. Same with what's coming.
The testing plateau we are at is around 150k tests per day. Around 10 days ago it was 100k tests per day. The rolling 4 day average of percentage of tests positive is 21.55% and 10 days ago it was 22.35%.
I think probably a more accurate statement would be "you would need 80% of the surviving population to have been exposed to the virus".
It would be too extreme to say CCP lied about everything. There are several different scenarios when public information released by CCP disagrees with western media reports. Central or local government deliberately conceals the information. Public information is incomplete or inaccurate due to technical reasons that are not intentionally controlled or manipulated by anyone. Chinese and western media report the same event from different angles. Western media mostly emphasizes the anti-China aspects for both financial and political reasons. In contrast, Chinese media mostly emphasizes the pro-China aspects. In this case, one cannot rely on single-sided voices to make judgements. Cultural / Ideological differences lead to different views of the same event from the Chinese and westerners Therefore I do not think it would be appropriate to blindly call every information released from China a lie when you disagree with it. I had explained that in detail in my earlier post. The actual number of deaths is definitely under-reported within Wuhan and Hubei primarily due to limited testing capability and restricted testing criteria, resulting in many people dying at home before getting a test for COVID-19. This happened in many other countries as well. There is no evidence whether the under-reporting is intentional or not. In most countries, figuring out the accurate number of deaths might not be the top priority for government officials during an outbreak of an epidemic. Meanwhile, it is absolutely possible that the number is intentionally suppressed in China but I also think that very few countries could do a better job in tracking the numbers accurately if they needed to deal with COVID-19 in real time. I am not sure which journalists you refer to exactly. The WSJ journalists were expelled primarily because of the discriminative headline on the Feb. 3 opinion piece. You may have your interpretation but that is a reasonable explanation from a Chinese cultural perspective. CCP is often criticized for its censorship and non-transparency. That is indeed a well-known issue especially since Xi reached the top. However, in a pandemic like this there is also a lot of misinformation circulating on the Internet that could lead to widespread panic and other serious problems (e.g. in UK people burned cell towers because they believed in conspiracy theory claiming a link between 5G and coronavirus). An appropriate level of censorship might be better than allowing a completely free circulation of information in the special period. As a side remark, in January and February CCP did allow some Chinese media to publish reports that criticize the early response of local governments and CDC. I've read several articles of that nature within China. I looked up the statistics of paper retractions in the health science field from this database. The search is restricted to the countries that ranked among the top of the numbers of retracted papers. The second number on each row is the total retracted papers. The first number counts the papers retracted due to a selected group of reasons that can directly lead to unreliable results (e.g., problems related to data / image / results, error in analyses / methods / materials, etc.). US: 1156 / 1858 China: 483 / 1512 Japan: 445 / 678 India: 102 / 429 UK: 241 / 412 Germany: 160 / 404 South Korea: 75 / 249 So China does have a lot of medical paper retractions but many of them were due to other kinds of misconducts such as plagarism or fake peer review. Most of the retractions came from low-impact journals (see here), which often have difficulty in finding qualified reviewers. As far as I know, suspected COVID-19 deaths at home are excluded from official numbers in most countries. So does China. Few countries are able to provide numbers on that while most aren't. Here is a snippet from Dr. Fauci's interview: My conclusions from this interview is that China's early response, which had been criticized by the media, delayed the understanding of COVID-19’s efficient transmissibility until mid- to late-Jan., at which time the worldwide spread was already unavoidable. At the end of Jan., China's numbers already showed that the virus was fairly contagious (estimated R0 was 2~3) and could severely strain the healthcare system (14% of cases were severe). Chinese researchers published tens of papers on various aspects of the virus and the disease in Jan. and Feb.. Media reports showed many scenes in Wuhan that reoccur in other places such as overloaded hospitals, lack of testing, and shortage of PPE. Therefore, I do not think an estimated death toll of, say, 20000, could lead to significantly different decisions from western governments. The unpreparedness of many European countries and the US in February was their own fault. Moreover, since travel bans by other countries could significantly hurt the economics, I think many governments would have a second thought on transparency of numbers at the beginning of an epidemic.
lol. I'm starting to understand there is a distinct possibility that the majority of the population is mentally deficient : https://abc13.com/turkey-leg-hut-op...-not-followed-people-waiting-in-line/6093487/
Nice find. I read about this earlier today. https://thebulletin.org/2020/03/exp...her-it-could-have-leaked-from-a-research-lab/ Experts know the new coronavirus is not a bioweapon. They disagree on whether it could have leaked from a research lab
That's nationally, but we don't have national or federally coordinated testing. What I'm saying is each state has a limit of tests they can perform based on the labs and technicians in their state. That will eventually make test results look like a plateau, but in reality it will be hard to draw conclusions. New York and Illinois will be able to process more tests than Alabama or Nebraska, but they all have a limit of tests they can process. It is nowhere near enough for the states or the country. That we still have this problem after three months is infuriating.
Good article on how to transition to containment. Nothing new which make it that much maddening that we haven’t been serious about any of this.
Unfortunately, until the tests are a randomized sample instead of just mostly symptomatic people, it's not going to be statistically relevant.
More from Gottlieb: “China was not being forthcoming with information that could have helped us prepare,” Gottlieb said. “This virus has changed the course of history…The gravity of what this virus is going to mean to society for the next two years can’t be overstated, in my view, and this is the consequence of something that came out of China.”
Brazil has disturbing numbers. Only 63,000 tests in total and 20,000 confirmed cases. Seems like it's mayhem there already, but they're simply not testing enough.
@malakas in your research have u come across any symptomatic cases without fever or cough? Or has every symptomatic case had at least 1 of these 2 symptoms? For the last few days I've had bad headaches (I don't have a history of migraines), some body ache and felt a bit of chills but i don't think it became a fever (no thermometer but I could still sweat), no cough, and the headaches would subside with paracetamol, I seem to be fully recovered now not needing the paracetamol anymore. This started 2 days after an outbreak was reported at a dorm 500m from my home that has since been quarantined, and I've definitely walked past people from the dorm before their quarantine. Now I'm wondering if I caught covid or it was just a random cold.
Anosmia, in other words, loss of taste and smell has been big in the symptom department. It is rarer with the common flu so it's said. https://theconversation.com/coronav...reported-as-early-symptoms-of-covid-19-134564
Probably goes for a lot of South America, South East Asia and Africa, we'll never know the huge amount of cases and death tolls. Can probably do an easy 10x of the official numbers for every country there.
