LOL. You have no idea what the "single largest factor" was because *they* don't know what the single largest factor was. Everything we have is anecdotal and theoretical. You should take your own advice.
Wow. And I have a friend whom I have a large amount of respect for trying to tell me this isn’t serious.
Do not get aggressive because I pointed out your blowhard mistake. You are not well read or informed on the situation at all. Show some humility and exit the conversation - this thread is about spreading facts and saving lives.
It is not so simple. The vast majority of deaths comes only from the North. The South and Center hasn't been hit yet neither has Rome. Even today 546/793 from the dead came only from Lombardia. Rome all together since today has only 50 dead. It has more than 2 million people. Milano only 1,3 . Napoli has 1 million people, only 22 dead. This is a long long long away from being over. Only the north is dying.
Honestly wish my friend could talk to you. You have some statistics and facts. He’s trying to downplay this and it kills me.
To understand how worse the situation is about to become you have to know Italy. What you see in the movies and film, the stereotypical Italy is the SOUTH. There is a big dichotomy on the north and south. The northern Italians are much less sociable almost like Germans, If the northerner kiss one person for greetings they southerner kiss 10. If the northerner lives with their parents, the southerner lives with their grandparents. If the northerner has a sunday lunch with 5 people the southerner has with 15. If the northerner has a house it has a garden the southerner lives in small apartment (especially Napoli). If the northerner follows the rule of quarantine by 50% the southerner follows it by 20%. The northerner is dying. The south not. Unless there is a magnificent genetic factor like a miracle ..then hell is coming.
It's mainly because people don't wear them properly. From the studies done on the average person, there was no significant protection from using a mask vs not using one. But worn properly, it could provide protection. Most improper use starts with how its worn. People don't pinch the nose to create a seal. They find it's uncomfortable and leave it loose. That defeats the purpose. Secondly is contamination. Those masks are disposable and not meant for reuse. I've seen recommendations anywhere between 8-24 hours of continued use. Now if someone coughs on you, it's contaminated and should be disposed. But most people are going to reuse a mask for longer than they should. They will also touch the mask, then touch all around their face. This isn't proper sterile treatment. I just saw an interview where they're proposing reuse of masks after sanitizing them. I didn't hear the method to sanitize, but I assume maybe a spray bottle of alcohol or bleach would do the trick. It's better than nothing, but still not ideal.
Why waste the hard to find disinfectant when you can just leave the mask for 5 days and any virus will have long ago met its end. If you want to be even more sure leave it on the sun for some time. Unless you only have 1 mask, or is the simple surgery masks that break and rip. We are not trying to have an open heart surgery here. You don't need to have a full sterile environment.
A very thoughtful and data driven article that I found interesting. The author basically posits that the original outbreak area of Wuhan and the bad area of Northern Italy are more likely outliers rather than the norm, and huge swaths of the world MAY be taking economic poison pills for a health issue, that while serious, isn't worthy of the response. Just one guys opinion, but he deeper dive into the data was the more interesting part of the article.
Right, but that would be seen in the time horizon data you were talking about. If we're seeing deaths about 10-15 days after they get it, then the fact that we're not seeing deaths in the South and Center suggest that the shutdowns may have been done in time there. Otherwise, if a ton of people were infected prior to the shutdowns, we would be seeing them dying right about now in the numbers. Basically, this next week will give a huge amount of insight into Italy and the effectiveness of their shutdown. And if their numbers slow, that's a good sign that other parts of Europe/US/etc could see slowdowns too, depending on how far behind Italy they each are.
Thanks. Major posted this a page or two back. It’s nice that it gathers some positive ways of looking at things but it has some flaws too.
There's more shortage of masks than disinfectant. It maybe takes a couple of sprays on each side to disinfect. Then leave out for a day because the virus lasts on paper for 24 hours. You can rotate a limited supply of masks that way, assuming it's not completely ruined like if someone directly coughs in your face. I probably wouldn't reuse the mask more than 3 times after sanitizing. I have a handful of N95 masks from random odd jobs around the house, also an RZ mask with 4 filters and a P100 half respirator that's easily wiped down. I still don't feel it's necessary to wear outdoors. Keeping my distance is more effective than wearing a mask. I'd only consider a mask if I'm in close quarters taking public transportation with dozens in close proximity.
The number of cases and deaths is a historical view of 1 to 2 weeks ago. There is some indication that new patients entering the system with symptoms is declining, so you'll see those numbers bear out in a couple weeks. Italy is probably on the back half of the top of the curve right now.
I feel you're right, like if you have them and are going to a high risk area wearing one will help. But w/ that said, what they're stating is basically people won't do a proper mask seal check - so then they'll be in a risky area and air is getting pulled in around the filter instead of through it. Then you now are basically trapping the virus inside your mask etc. Ie taking mask off wrong, no protocols, touching mask then face, reusing masks wrong - improper storage /limit use etc etc So, if you have even some training or are caring for someone sick wear them. Anyway definitely agree with you, just don't be the guy that takes off mask in high risk area touchs mask and itches nose / has an amazing beard. Etc etc -so definitely doesn't sound like you, but you'd be surprised at some of the stuff I've seen (I mean I'm sure we all have....) If for any reason I need to visit parents with health issues I'm wearing something at minimum - basic mask/95 rated etc, but at this point I'm seriously just dropping stuff off if it gets harder to get supplies, can't risk getting them sick. I know anyone can get sick but I seriously have been worried I might have had a small case already or will have it and won't know, ie allergy like symptom (but not cough) and it never gets to lungs... And then I give it to someone, I would be really devastated if I find out I'm the reason or something for a family member/friend/anyone in isolation getting ill.
