You are quite wise to pick up on how implied ADP value relates to an offense as a whole, and more closely that offense's QB. This happens every year because of the cognitive dissonance and the bias and hype baked into ADP value. This is another reason why it pays to wait on a QB. How is Kirk Cousins available in the 10-13th round yet Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs are both considered fringe WR1s, Dalvin Cook is usually gone in the 2nd round, and even Kyle Rudolph is a top 10 TE off the board. If the Vikings offense is expected to be that prolific, then why isn't Kirk Cousins being looked at as a Top 5 QB? Now, I'm not expecting Cousins to be Top 5, but there is no reason he can't give you 85%-90% of Tom Brady production at a severely lower cost. The Chiefs positional talent is inflated a bit because of high performance last year. Few people rostered Alex Smith last season, and yet he was a top 6 fantasy QB in most formats. Alex Smith is thought of as a game manager with a below average arm. But how does that Chiefs offense perform well enough to boast a TE1 RB1 and WR1 without Smith? Don't forget Smith may be old and white but he still also adds more rushing yard value than pocket passers like Rivers, Stafford, etc. Smith may have still had plenty of meager performances, but his upside was QB1 more than a couple times. Now, nobody is expecting Alex Smith to repeat that kind of success in Washington, but Washington is being completely disrespected in fantasy circles. Jamison Crowder is probably the only skill position player being drafted in the first 10 rounds. Somebody on that team is going to carry value. ADP tends to be too pessimistic toward "known" commodities and overvalues rookies and hype players. Mahomes should be viewed as a very viable starter this year simply due to the talent on the roster. However, I do feel like Sammy Watkins is immensely overvalued. He was not great in LA last year. I avoided him at all costs because I feel like he'll have a couple of boom weeks here and there but mostly will not be useful to start on a weekly basis. I also like Marcus Mariota and Matt Ryan and their bargain basement prices for late-round QBs. Mariota provides some rushing yards and the Titans offense has a new OC, which brings potential for more production than before. I was maybe foolish to completely ignore Corey Davis this year. He could definitely be a stud this year IF that offense is taken to the next level. As for Matt Ryan, his TD production was well above normal and that led him to MVP level 2 years ago, then last year it was the complete opposite as his TD production was well below the expected median. I think he should rebound nicely this year and provide fringe top 10 QB numbers.
Yeah, the more I read the more I tend to lean Breida over Morris in all formats. There was even some speculation that Breida was going to get more carries than McKinnon before the injury happened. Breida, like Morris is actually not a very good pass catching back, so maybe that limits the PPR upside you'd hope for a bit. Still, stranger things have happened in the NFL. Alfred Morris becoming relevant again with his old OC would not surprise me.
QBs available: Tyrod Taylor Andy Dalton Josh McCown Sam Darnold Joe Flacco Mitchell Trubisky Nick Foles Brock Osweiler (surprised he's still available) Wentz isn't IR eligible in yahoo. Mark Ingram was cut by someone, should I jump on that pickup?
Its funny with all the prep work and "strategy" involved with building a team, how much of it still boils down to luck. For example, this year you may be faced with playing game 1 against a team with LeVeon Bell... and then happy days! But some other owner may be now faced with playing against a team that raced to add James Conner. Last year I remember playing against two different teams that had Zeke as he was being added and dropped depending on rumors of suspensions.
well i mean prepping involves knowing bell hasn't been with the team all summer and been unhappy obviously. that's not really luck. that went into my decision to pass on him twice in 2 leagues when i had the opportunity to draft him. I chose to not want to be the one to deal with the drama he has brought previously and its looking like for week 1 atm it was the right decision
No Bortles? He has a good match-up against the NY Giants. If not, I'd suggest Andy Dalton (vs IND). Tyrod if healthy is kinda attractive because he runs and PIT's LBs are not as strong as in the past. Stream the rest of the season if you need to... hopefully Wentz will play game 2.
If I had pick 4 and Gurley, DJ and Zeke were all taken... I might have still drafted Bell over Brown.. He pulled the same thing last year but appeared the Sunday before the season started. He may still appear before week one... heck, he shows up Saturday, gets paid for game 1, and gets an extra week off and less wear and tear.
also took into the account that he took another full year of wear and tear for a 26 year old rb with his workload and couple w/ another offseason not with the team. just too many flags for my preference that i chose to avoid
I have Wentz in one of my leagues on yahoo, and I was able to put him on IR. I wonder if there’s a different setting for your yahoo league. I second the recommendation to play Dalton vs IND
Just saw this... if true or the say it works out guess I would have been hosed if I had drafted him... Bell's tweet:
damn. so glad i dont have to worry about this https://www.steelernation.com/bells-agent-read-between-the-lines/ agent sounds extremely frustrated. doesn't sound like this is close to getting resolved at all
he got hot during the final stretch of the season though and was solid during the fantasy playoffs including a 500+ yard game vs Baltimore
It is an odd situation. Ben has been notoriously horrible on the road for a while now, but he still has those insane days left in him when Brown and Juju and Leveon all eat. Keenum didn't put up eye-popping numbers last year either despite the success of Thielen, Diggs, Rudolph. The correlation doesn't always work depending on how good the team is at running TDs in. Lat Murray will probably end up stealing some thunder from all those guys this year.
Great post. I am going to play Mahomes/Hill this week, screw it. While the person I am playing against has Watkins. Something else that is funny is, I will live and die this year with David Johnson. He is on ALL 3 of my teams haha
I picked up James Conners on the waiver wire today. I think I'm going to start him over Hyde and Barber as my flex. Any thoughts?
I picked DJ #1 last year... screwed me so hard I didn't even consider him at #3 this year... took Elliot.
I was given that option twice. As a Cowboys fan I really wanted to take Elliott. His center being out made me sour on him a bit, knowing the line will have to be excellent because their receivers will never be doubled. I just hope they are both healthy, and let the chips fall where they may.
In my standard league James Conner still on waivers. Though I have Barkley, Gordon and Mixon (along with Kerryon Johnson and Sony Michel) and weak on WR, should I drop Anthony Miller and add Conner, even if only trade material and to block others? update... just went ahead and did it. Worst case I drop if/when Bell returns or if Conner stumbles in his high-use spotlight.
