Another factor to consider: while Giles doesn't make a ton of money, he cost the Astros five players, including three highly-ranked (at the time) arms. Think about their options this year, and moving forward, with Valesquez, Appel & Eshelman in the mix. Seeing what they've done for Keuchel, Morton, Peacock, even Fiers for a brief spell, you can't just assume those guys wouldn't have possibly made an impact at the MLB level. They certainly provide greater flexibility and options. So the idea of throwing more prospects or money at the back of the bullpen is likely giving Luhnow pause, especially considering a) the bullpen was pretty good this year (prior to October); b) bullpen arms are, more than any other position, almost impossible to predict.
No, there is certainly a chance. This years results could very well not be replicated from our bullpen (or Giles). Trust is a HUGE factor and when it comes down to postseason play... Hinch removed Giles from the closer position because he couldn't be trusted. Hinch would be able to trust Wade Davis. I don't think he's worth 65 million but I can almost be positive that Luhnow will offer something above 50 million range. Stats (even though they are similar) don't tell the story on what players feel whenever Giles toes the rubber in the ninth of a crucial game. He can't be trusted. Davis can. He's proven it in the past.
This will certainly happen. Also, Sipp isn't even close to Davis. Yes, relievers are hard to predict... but Wade Davis is a top 5 closer in baseball. Giles is broken until he proves he can handle a middle relief role. Point being... we don't have a closer and one is waiting... but at what cost. I'm on the Wade Davis train and ain't going back.
I think we need to be clear that 2015 Wade Davis is probably not walking through that door. Davis was very good last year. But, by his own standards, 2017 was a step back in many ways: - from '14-'16, he gave up 3 HRs total (!); last year: 6 - he also walked more batters (28); ~+9 over his '14-'16 stretch - as a result, despite striking out more batters, his FIP was up ~1.5 runs (3.38) from '14-'16 (1.86) - and while strikeouts did take a big jump (12.1/9 v 11.5/9 '14-'16), he also switched to the NL. I'd be VERY cautious about opening the bank for, well - ANY reliever. But especially a 32-year old reliever coming off of a.... I don't want to call it a disappointing season - but it certainly wasn't on the same level as '14-'16. You don't want to pay a player for past accomplishments.
Move Morton to closer. Sign Jake McGee or Mike Minor. Stretch out Musgrove and Martes in spring training to be the next guys up when a starter goes down. I prefer Morton to McCullers as a closer because Morton threw his fastball for strikes better. McCullers has a little Giles in him. Rotation: Verlander Keuchel McCullers McHugh Peacock Bullpen: Morton Giles McGee/Minor Devenski Harris Musgrove Feliz/Martes
I know this, and so do you. Remember when the Stros desperately needed an RBI stick in the middle of the order, and they went and signed Carlos Lee. Remember him being a solid contributor and then a contract albatross his last couple of years? Is that what you are proposing? Again: bullpen help, good. Stupid contracts, bad. I trust Ground Control. It beat me at chess once.
If healthy Riley Farrell may be the LHRP the team has been missing. I think Whitley will be in the rotation at some point next season.
You're on the right track...if he's healthy he could be in the big pen sometime next year. His stuff is/was that good. eta: and here's a straight wildcard for a Sept callup: Cionel Perez, LHP
Not really getting the Morton to closer talk. I'm sure he'd be great there but he was pretty damn good as a starter and may be better this year. Another year away from injury, another offseason honing his newfound 99 mph fastball. I too want an elite closer but right now I think we gotta look in other directions. Giles should be thought as a middle relief type until he proves otherwise. Devo, Martes, Musgrove, Ferrel are internal options. Wade Davis would be cool but I like others have a bit of a bad feeling about him. Every time I watched him last year seemed like he was in a jam. Ultimately still had a great year tho. Idk man. Bullpen has to be addressed without a doubt.. I'm just still riding this high! All the faith in the world in Luhnow to figure it out. Wouldn't have said that back in August
I understand this line of thinking, but how does he do this? He was outstanding in the regular season - let's say he does that again this year. Does that make him a closer again? He could still implode in October. His problems were exclusively playoffs-related - how does the team address that, unless you wait until October?
You have another veteran guy who throughout the season closes ~1/3 of the games. Depending on matchups Giles may work the 7/8th at times, or he's unavailable, and vice/versa. We'll see what they do. Hell, Martes could eventually be that guy, if he can get his mechanics right consistently. Luhnow and Ground Control have nothing if not flexibility this offseason.
Yep. That's what made the Giles discussion throughout the playoffs so infuriating: there was a definite TOLDYA! vibe to it. But, here's the thing: while we can healthily debate the validity of Giles' '17 regular season, NO ONE - not a single, solitary person - thought he'd be THAT bad. So.... what's reality? That's a trickier discussion, I think. I believe the Astros will be more dubious of his postseason performance than many fans. At the same time, this team is no longer built to *just* win in the regular season and his implosion has to be viewed as concerning.
A three year contract to Wade Davis is not even remotely bad. Especially since it's up right before Correa becomes a FA. I don't see why the Astros organization won't inquire and make a competitive offer for Wade. It makes too much sense. Luhnow will sign instead of trading prospects. Just a prediction.