Bullpen spending limit this offseason

Bellinger had a rough series; he also hit what looked like a dagger home run in game 5. No outs, against THAT team, will be slighted. They were tough SOBs.

 

Yes, I think a contender willing to promise him everyday ABs could sign Granderson for $3-5M. If Houston does sign a bat I think it’ll be a lefty on a cheap 1 year deal (<$10M) which limits them to one of Granderson, Duda, Moreland, Jay, Lind, Melky Cabrera, Saunders, and maybe Carlos Gonzalez. Granderson and Duda are my favorites from the list and I do not want Melky or Moreland, and really if they believe in Fisher or Reed they should roll with them.

 

I think they need to roll with those guys even if they don't believe in them. The key to dealing with the upcoming roster crunch is finding cheap guys that can replace guys as their contracts roll off or come up for renewal. But to do that, the Astros have to give these guys consistent playing time - not just a week here or there as injury subs.

Play the young guy. If they all suck and you have a big hole in the #9 spot, our offense can handle that. Bats are cheap mid-season, so it's easy enough to trade for a Granderson type down the stretch if needed. But we need to be focused on finding cheap, club-controlled guys that can replace Reddick (or Springer, if we can't sign him), Yuli, etc in a couple of years - and that means using the #9 spot (and probably the #6 pitching spot) to experiment a bit and accept some failure there. That's the best way to keep as many of the core guys as possible.

 

Fisher in LF (trade or Jake notwithstanding) unless he just bombs in ST. There's a LF/DH/1B job to be won whenever one of those youngsters wants it.

 

The spending limit is whatever it takes to get Wade Davis. Period.

He not only shores up the back end of the bullpen with a top 5 closer in baseball but he relegates Giles, Devinski, Harris to 7th/8th inning roles where they would undoubtedly excel at. Hell, get Jake McGee too. His splits looked great away from Coors.

The Astros can't afford to take chances when it comes to bullpen. We got away with winning a championship out of our offense going nuclear but that won't always be the case... Aim high and offer Davis 4 years, 65 million.

Astros have a chance at repeating and it would be a shame if we didn't get a top closer this offseason.

 

What if Luhnow doesn't like him at that price? What if Luhnow doesn't like him at all?

 

Maybe Luhnow feels more comfortable with Devinski and Giles... idk... is that what you would prefer? I think he will get Davis or reignite the Britton talks.

You choose: trade away prospects (Luhnow won't do that) or cement our chances at winning the next 3-5 years.

It's more so a Crane decision. Not a hard one if money isn't a factor.

 

Davis put 11 people on base in his last 4 innings in the playoffs. And I'd just point out that several teams that invested heavily in incredible bullpens got blown up in the playoffs this year. Bullpen is certainly very important - but it's also extremely unpredictable. Throwing lots of money at it it doesn't necessarily make it that much better - certainly not as much as that money likely would if spent elsewhere. There is zero chance the Astros are going to give anything close to $65 million to any bullpen guy.

 

$65 million dollars for a closer? No thank you. Unless that’s Mariano Rivera walking in the door. At best you get 70 innings a season out of a closer and there’s no one that’s a sure thing in the playoffs. We need to upgrade but we’re not desperate.

 

It is absolutely a hard decision. What would Tony Sipp from 3 years ago earn right now? Coming off of 2 great seasons? A ****ton more than he got. That's just one example. Relievers are the most difficult thing to project, even a guy with a 2,3 year track record is a total question mark.

I'm not saying at all that they shouldn't bolster the pen this offseason, but I trust them to sign the guy(s) they want. Or promote from within.

 

While we haven't likely seen the last of Reed/White as possible everyday players... there's also the very high likelihood that they're not going to amount to much more than what they already are showing. They also have ?'s in guys like Moran and even Marisnick to some extent (as the latter is about to continue to get a decent arbitration raise when he's never been an everyday player).

At the same time, wouldn't surprise anybody that Tucker ends up coming up and doing more in his brief stint than any of the hodge-podge other minor leaguers that have come up and eventually failed (including older Tucker).

In 2-3 years, when they could actually lose some of the core guys, the current AAA guys are actually going to be older than any of the core are right now.... thus, in reality, the realistic "replacement" players are the ones still at high A and AA. The guys at AAA are more likely to be MLB depth for possible injury vs. viable everyday-player-in-waiting.

In the mean time, I'd say the more veterans the better. They're still cheap, they add experience/guidance to a still very young core that thrived off that sort of influence this year, and the rejuvenation effect of playing in a young/infectious/winning clubhouse is very very real... guys once thought of as "done" end up having yet another gear left.

 

Just throwing this out there:

Wade Davis - 1.14 WHIP, 2.30 ERA, 79 Ks in 58.2 innings, 32 saves, 1 blown save, $10,000,000 2017 salary (big FA payday coming)
Ken Giles - 1.04 WHIP, 2.30 ERA, 83 Ks, 62.2 innings, 34 saves, 4 blown saves, $550,000 2017 salary (arbitration coming)

EDIT - Each had a 1.9 WAR

DOUBLE EDIT - Davis had 19 'clean games' out of 59 games pitched (did not allow any runners regardless of innings pitched). Giles had 26 games (63 games pitched)

 

Most FA relief pitchers aren't going to have better regular season numbers than Giles.

Post-season numbers aren't going to be available for all of them... and as we just saw, post-season effectiveness can differ markedly from regular season track records (both ways).

Britton, if he's not broken, intrigues me moreso than any other option due to his handedness... but in-house (minor league) options shouldn't be excluded either... and yes, I realize this completely refutes my stance two posts above, on who they should get for the lineup. Pitchers are just a different breed... raw stuff that can't be taught, along with arm liveness from day one, has a way of translating quite well to the bullpen (ahem, Martes... ahem, Whitley).

 

Put me firmly in the no thanks camp on Davis.

While I think he would most likely be the best option for the 2018 season, I don't want to be paying him 2019-2021 when he may not even be any good, and we will have a ton of other more important needs. I would rather go after a cheaper option like we did with Gregerson a few years back.

 

I'm firmly in the camp that we should just go ahead and lock up the core. Altuve, Springer at a minimum. He'll even Correa. I know that Basketball and baseball are different beasts, but how do you think a Morey would approach the upcoming apocalypse if he ran the Stros?

 

If this were the NBA, the choice would be clear. Let Springer walk and keep Correa and Altuve. Still 5 more years to worry about Bregman. You simply cant replace this much production from your middle infield.

But this is an open market in baseball. If Correa lives up to expectations his contract will be insane. We could make a fair offer and simply be outbid by a blue blood.

 

Davis depends on contract. 4 years $60M is too much. 3 years $36M would be perfect, but won't happen.

Ask the Giants how they feel about that Melancon contract.

 

Brad Hand is a guy I would love to trade for. Trade for either Hand or Britton and sign Minor or McGee. I’d consider that a good job of addressing the bullpen.

 

If Astros are targeting a lefty reliever, who are the free agents available? And what should they offer?

Jake Mcgee
Mike Minor
Tony Watson
Francisco Liriano

What are the chances Tony Sipp plays out his final year ($6M) as the loogy?