Verlander getting an opt out would pretty much eliminate any chance of elite prospects going to Detroit no matter how much money they eat. And I don't see any way he approves a trade without one. I can see the trade being built around Perez or Alvarez with some PTBNL/cash items on both sides determined by whether he opts out or not. I cannot envision a scenario where Tucker or Whitley goes to Detroit unless Detroit is sending back a lesser prospect (like Christin Stewart) to lessen the blow.
Even if he Tigers had gifted Martinez to the Astros, he would have cost them salary, and we know the Astros' budget is somewhat limited. Of course, he wasn't going to be shipped here for nothing, so - yes, prospects that might have otherwise been earmarked/used to acquire pitching would been unavailable.
There is no scenario in which the Astros would trade Tucker or Whitley for Verlander. If that's the asking price, (click)
Not sure where the opt out came from, but considering Verlander is overpaid, I don't see how it impacts what Detroit would receive. If teams thought Verlander would actually use an opt out, they would be willing to trade more as they can acquire more wins for less money this offseason than Verlander likely provides on his remaining contract (i.e. last two years of Verlander's contract is seen as a negative). Rental Verlander would be worth more to a team worried about paying their stars in the near future like the Astros. Regarding Verlander wanting an opt out, he would likely make about 20 million less on open market this offseason than his contract currently provides. Not sure if any player has ever opted out with the expectation of losing 20 million dollars.
He was essentially traded for nothing. Ronnie Dawson would be an equivalent prospect in Astros system. Astros weren't getting pitching better than guys they already had that Ronnie Dawson would be considered an irreplaceable piece in the trade. Salary is only thing that could have been a problem. Beltran being overpaid strikes again.
See I disagree with this line of thinking -- you can always improve on what you have, whether that is pitching or batting. Just because the Astros offense is great doesn't mean it couldn't be even better. I think we would agree the JD Martinez return was minimal and would not really dip in to our prospect trove.
I tend to agree with you. If the question is which do we need more, pitching or hitting, then pitching would be my answer.
Historically great or not, after the shutout the other day, it sure looked like there was room for improvement. edit: Sure, all teams can get shutout. But on your resources comment, better hitting usually costs less than better pitching. Just sayin'.
In a certain sense, that supports my point. Injuries can happen at any time, including days before the playoffs. That is why more depth can never hurt. Just because we should be getting some guys back doesn't mean someone else wont go down and not come back.
That's your opinion; silly to assume the Tigers share it. Unless you have access to their internal evaluation processes, it's impossible to know what Astros prospect would meet their needs/criteria.
The new CBA outlines that players in Verlanders situation can get an opt out if traded. This significantly alters the calculation on his value, since with an opt out, he can leave if he pitches really well (and/or doesn't like Houston), and if he pitches poorly or gets hurt, he can stay and get the $56M. That's much more downside for the acquiring team. If Verlander pitches like 1998 Randy Johnson, he could probably opt out and get somebody to throw 4 years at him and net at least another 10M in guaranteed money. It's unlikely, but it limits the upside of trading for him.
Not my argument. You have a limited number of resources; spending them on a team strength is a waste of those limited resources.
In an uncapped league... the limitations of resources have the ability to be adjusted on a case-by-case basis (see Hamels in 2015).
That's both really cool for the player, and it's got to be maddeningly difficult for the teams to negotiate a trade. Between an opt-out and an future option year, that's got to be a mess to try to figure out what's he worth.
This line of thought it getting old as a defense for every move made or not made. The Astros farm system is loaded with players better than and similar to the players that the Tigers received for Martinez. The Astros could have easily exceeded the package the Tigers received with a minimal impact to the Astros system. The Astros either didn't really want Martinez or didn't want to spend the money. The end.
And you have your opinion that Martinez may have cost Astros prospects earmarked for other trades. That's an opinion, right? No inside info to make it more than that? I'd be interested to hear what you think would have been a comparable package from Astros for Martinez? Based on Dbacks package it's fair to assume it wouldn't have touched prospects being mentioned in pitching deals.
They didn't. But, for the sake of argument - here's a counter thought: the Tigers got prospects they *really* liked and are happy with the deal. Mind-blowing, I know, that the Tigers' evaluation process might differ from all the enlightened opinions of armchair GMs online.
You've taken to the defense of the front office role a little too well... both here, and in the low-hanging fruit world of twitter. It's getting a little disingenuous. You can't honestly defend absolutely every move or non-move they make with absolute fandom. Everybody here is a fan... and everybody here gets what they're doing... but they're going to make mistakes from time to time, and by no means have they handled all deadlines or off-seasons as well as some are claiming.
There's a finite # of prospects because some are untouchable, others not appealing... So any deal NOT for a pitcher takes away from however limited the pool is. Until you produce internal documents outlining the Tigers' organizational needs and evaluation processes, I'm going to continue to insist that this is not a simple 1:1 scenario. In terms of possible deals - don't follow minor league baseball, don't follow the Tigers, don't care because it was never going to happen and it's not worth my time to look into it.
